Apple Watch Sales Q4 2016: $1.4 billion

Apple results out again, meaning time to estimate Apple Watch Sales!


Based on my formula, it looks like Apple Watch Sales are up again, but only to $1.4 billion for the quarter.


That is an increase of 15% from the last quarter, but down 20% on Q4 2015.


Still unconvinced by the Apple Watch myself

Apple Watch Sales Q3 2016 estimate: $1.2 Billion

Using my formula, there has been  a 40% increase in Apple Watch sales in the 3rd Quarter. Well done.

Market Risk Premium of ASX200 in June 2016: 0.4578%

That time again to test the market risk premium of the ASX200.


As mentioned last time, I assumed that as the market risk premium had turned negative in March, either the Bond rate had to drop, or returns had to improve. In fact both occurred. (Go me!)


Average 10 year Bond rate, due to the RBA dropping rates again, has reduced further to 3.04% from 3.22%


The ASX200 average return has improved slightly to -0.91%


Dividend yield has improved slightly as well to 4.407%. Meaning the market return has increased to 3.5% compared to 2.6% previously.


So that means the Market risk premium has turned positive once again to 0.5% Way off the long term average, so still think there is some life left in the ASX rally.

Sydney House Prices 25/6/16: Average 3 bedroom House now sells for $1,266,427 (down 0.03%)

House	Type	Sample	Median	Average	Min	Max	Change
Average	2brh	1236	1,141,750.00	1,158,479.96	1,134,800.89	1,182,159.03	0.11%
	3brh	4476	1,220,000.00	1,266,427.24	1,251,481.01	1,281,373.48	-0.03%
	4brh	3576	1,380,500.00	1,506,837.34	1,483,784.36	1,529,890.32	0.00%
Unit	Type			Average	Min	Max
	2 Bedroom Unit	3014	800,000.00	854,104.56	843,139.72	865,069.39	0.22%
	3 Bedroom Unit	1257	1,050,000.00	1,200,278.81	1,165,788.01	1,234,769.60	0.24%

Sydney House Prices 18/06/2016: Average 3 bedroom house now sells for $1,266,844 (up 0.01%)

House	Type	Sample	Median	Average	Min	Max	Change
Average	2brh	1220	1,141,750.00	1,157,202.92	1,133,310.53	1,181,095.31	0.31%
	3brh	4399	1,220,000.00	1,266,844.59	1,251,735.68	1,281,953.49	0.01%
	4brh	3501	1,385,000.00	1,506,838.71	1,483,589.25	1,530,088.17	0.11%
Unit	Type			Average	Min	Max
	2 Bedroom Unit	2956	800,000.00	852,260.02	841,196.86	863,323.19	0.02%
	3 Bedroom Unit	1235	1,050,000.00	1,197,369.20	1,162,682.04	1,232,056.35	0.04%

Sydney House Prices 11/06/2016: Average 3 bedroom house now sells for $1,266,714 (down 0.06%)

Pretty flat on low volumes this weekend

House	Type	Sample	Median	Average	Min	Max	Change
Average	2brh	1196	1,140,000.00	1,153,650.29	1,129,503.78	1,177,796.81	0.01%
	3brh	4313	1,220,000.00	1,266,714.52	1,251,436.50	1,281,992.54	-0.06%
	4brh	3440	1,380,500.00	1,505,240.36	1,481,739.80	1,528,740.91	0.01%
Unit	Type			Average	Min	Max
	2 Bedroom Unit	2903	800,000.00	852,100.46	840,936.76	863,264.15	0.04%
	3 Bedroom Unit	1211	1,050,000.00	1,196,882.71	1,161,853.52	1,231,911.90	0.15%

Sydney House Prices 4/06/16: Average 3 bedroom house now sells for $1,267,496 (up 0.22%)

Still increases in the 3 bedroom market. Have also added Median House price to my analysis.

House	Type	Sample	Median	Average	Min	Max	Change
Average	2brh	1182	1,140,000.00	1,153,558.54	1,129,222.60	1,177,894.49	0.07%
	3brh	4282	1,220,000.00	1,267,496.78	1,252,136.26	1,282,857.30	0.22%
	4brh	3423	1,380,000.00	1,505,068.60	1,481,413.53	1,528,723.67	0.00%
Unit	Type			Average	Min	Max
	2 Bedroom Unit	2877	800,000.00	851,756.34	840,527.61	862,985.07	0.04%
	3 Bedroom Unit	1201	1,050,000.00	1,195,138.18	1,159,978.36	1,230,298.01	0.58%

Sydney House Prices 28/05/2016: Average 3 bedroom house now sells for $1,264,772 (up 0.22%)

Still strong prices...but fairly low volumes.

House	Type		Sample	Average	Min	Max	Change
Average	2brh		1161	1,152,715.45	1,128,096.24	1,177,334.66	0.15%
	3brh		4218	1,264,772.22	1,249,402.19	1,280,142.25	0.22%
	4brh		3363	1,505,069.83	1,481,204.67	1,528,934.98	0.23%
Unit	Type			Average	Min	Max
	2 Bedroom Unit		2835	851,421.28	840,104.44	862,738.12	-0.01%
	3 Bedroom Unit		1181	1,188,261.61	1,153,759.39	1,222,763.83	0.53%

Sydney House Prices 21/05/2016: Average 3 bedroom house now sells for $1,262,030 (up 0.11%)

Stats as below

House	Type		Sample	Average	Min	Max	Change
Average	2brh		1141	1,150,950.97	1,126,086.46	1,175,815.48	-0.12%
	3brh		4143	1,262,030.46	1,246,573.48	1,277,487.44	0.11%
	4brh		3296	1,501,669.02	1,477,658.71	1,525,679.33	0.07%
Unit	Type			Average	Min	Max
	2 Bedroom Unit		2791	851,483.28	840,073.53	862,893.03	0.08%
	3 Bedroom Unit		1160	1,181,979.71	1,148,402.40	1,215,557.01	-0.01%

Sydney House Prices 14/05/2016: Average 3 bedroom house now sells for $1,260,615 (up 0.11%)

Stats as per usual. Climbing again.

House	Type		Sample	Average	Min	Max	Change
Average	2brh		1118	1,152,351.93	1,127,157.23	1,177,546.63	-0.04%
	3brh		4077	1,260,615.60	1,245,077.43	1,276,153.77	0.11%
	4brh		3242	1,500,595.65	1,476,421.96	1,524,769.34	0.11%
Unit	Type			Average	Min	Max
	2 Bedroom Unit		2741	850,833.17	839,291.53	862,374.82	0.11%
	3 Bedroom Unit		1142	1,182,066.08	1,148,079.65	1,216,052.50	0.20%

Sydney House Prices 7/05/2016: Average 3 bedroom house now sells for $1,259,246 (up 0.24%)

Big week for prices

House	Type		Sample	Average	Min	Max	Change
Average	2brh		1100	1,152,764.49	1,127,267.88	1,178,261.09	0.06%
	3brh		4012	1,259,246.99	1,243,809.58	1,274,684.40	0.24%
	4brh		3193	1,498,906.36	1,474,594.45	1,523,218.27	0.21%
Unit	Type			Average	Min	Max
	2 Bedroom Unit		2701	849,897.72	838,258.26	861,537.17	0.10%
	3 Bedroom Unit		1128	1,179,703.42	1,145,631.32	1,213,775.53	0.19%

Sydney House Prices 30/04/2016: Average 3 Bedroom House now sells for $1,256,279.88 (Up 0.11%)

Houses continue their increase over April

House	Type		Sample	Average	Min	Max	Change
Average	2brh		1079	1,152,015.70	1,126,262.43	1,177,768.98	0.08%
	3brh		3946	1,256,279.88	1,240,697.19	1,271,862.57	0.11%
	4brh		3139	1,495,797.71	1,471,283.38	1,520,312.04	0.15%
Unit	Type			Average	Min	Max
	2 Bedroom Unit		2659	849,083.39	837,326.44	860,840.34	0.20%
	3 Bedroom Unit		1113	1,177,520.63	1,143,204.54	1,211,836.72	-0.04%