Economic Rigor

Apple results out again, meaning time to estimate Apple Watch Sales! Based on my formula, it looks like Apple Watch Sales are up again, but only to $1.4 billion for the quarter. That is an increase of 15% from the last quarter, but down 20% on Q4 2015. Still unconvinced by the Apple Watch myself

Using my formula, there has been  a 40% increase in Apple Watch sales in the 3rd Quarter. Well done.

That time again to test the market risk premium of the ASX200. As mentioned last time, I assumed that as the market risk premium had turned negative in March, either the Bond rate had to drop, or returns had to improve. In fact both occurred. (Go me!) Average 10 year Bond rate, due to the RBA dropping rates again, has reduced further to 3.04% from 3.22% The ASX200 average return has improved slightly to -0.91% Dividend yield has improved slightly as well to 4.407%. Meaning the market return has increased to 3.5% compared to 2.6% previously. So that means the Market risk premium has turned positive once again to 0.5% Way off the long term average, so still think there is some life left in the ASX rally.

House Type Sample Median Average Min Max Change Average 2brh   1236      1,141,750.00      1,158,479.96           1,134,800.89    1,182,159.03 0.11% 3brh   4476      1,220,000.00      1,266,427.24           1,251,481.01    1,281,373.48 -0.03% 4brh   3576      1,380,500.00      1,506,837.34           1,483,784.36    1,529,890.32 0.00% Unit Type Average Min Max 2 Bedroom Unit 3014         800,000.00          854,104.56 ...

House Type Sample Median Average Min Max Change Average 2brh   1220      1,141,750.00      1,157,202.92           1,133,310.53    1,181,095.31 0.31% 3brh   4399      1,220,000.00      1,266,844.59           1,251,735.68    1,281,953.49 0.01% 4brh   3501      1,385,000.00      1,506,838.71           1,483,589.25    1,530,088.17 0.11% Unit Type Average Min Max 2 Bedroom Unit 2956         800,000.00          852,260.02  ...

Pretty flat on low volumes this weekend House Type Sample Median Average Min Max Change Average 2brh   1196      1,140,000.00      1,153,650.29           1,129,503.78    1,177,796.81 0.01% 3brh   4313      1,220,000.00      1,266,714.52           1,251,436.50    1,281,992.54 -0.06% 4brh   3440      1,380,500.00      1,505,240.36           1,481,739.80    1,528,740.91 0.01% Unit Type Average Min Max 2 Bedroom Unit 2903         800,000.00     ...

Still increases in the 3 bedroom market. Have also added Median House price to my analysis. House Type Sample Median Average Min Max Change Average 2brh   1182      1,140,000.00      1,153,558.54           1,129,222.60    1,177,894.49 0.07% 3brh   4282      1,220,000.00      1,267,496.78           1,252,136.26    1,282,857.30 0.22% 4brh   3423      1,380,000.00      1,505,068.60           1,481,413.53    1,528,723.67 0.00% Unit Type Average Min Max 2 Bedroom Unit 2877      ...

Still strong prices...but fairly low volumes. House Type Sample Average Min Max Change Average 2brh   1161      1,152,715.45           1,128,096.24    1,177,334.66 0.15% 3brh   4218      1,264,772.22           1,249,402.19    1,280,142.25 0.22% 4brh   3363      1,505,069.83           1,481,204.67    1,528,934.98 0.23% Unit Type Average Min Max 2 Bedroom Unit 2835          851,421.28              840,104.44        862,738.12 -0...

Stats as below House Type Sample Average Min Max Change Average 2brh   1141      1,150,950.97           1,126,086.46    1,175,815.48 -0.12% 3brh   4143      1,262,030.46           1,246,573.48    1,277,487.44 0.11% 4brh   3296      1,501,669.02           1,477,658.71    1,525,679.33 0.07% Unit Type Average Min Max 2 Bedroom Unit 2791          851,483.28              840,073.53        862,893.03 0.08% 3 Bedroom Unit ...

Stats as per usual. Climbing again. House Type Sample Average Min Max Change Average 2brh   1118      1,152,351.93           1,127,157.23    1,177,546.63 -0.04% 3brh   4077      1,260,615.60           1,245,077.43    1,276,153.77 0.11% 4brh   3242      1,500,595.65           1,476,421.96    1,524,769.34 0.11% Unit Type Average Min Max 2 Bedroom Unit 2741          850,833.17              839,291.53        862,374.82 0.11% ...

Big week for prices House Type Sample Average Min Max Change Average 2brh   1100      1,152,764.49           1,127,267.88    1,178,261.09 0.06% 3brh   4012      1,259,246.99           1,243,809.58    1,274,684.40 0.24% 4brh   3193      1,498,906.36           1,474,594.45    1,523,218.27 0.21% Unit Type Average Min Max 2 Bedroom Unit 2701          849,897.72              838,258.26        861,537.17 0.10% 3 Bedroom Uni...

Houses continue their increase over April House Type Sample Average Min Max Change Average 2brh   1079      1,152,015.70           1,126,262.43    1,177,768.98 0.08% 3brh   3946      1,256,279.88           1,240,697.19    1,271,862.57 0.11% 4brh   3139      1,495,797.71           1,471,283.38    1,520,312.04 0.15% Unit Type Average Min Max 2 Bedroom Unit 2659          849,083.39              837,326.44   ...