Just been looking through the budget on housing...some dodgy ass stuff happening
The Labor government has raided the National Housing Infrastructure Fund (which was set up in 2017) to help pay for its housing initiative. However the fund was set up for infrastructure funding to local governments, not to create housing itself. Over $1 billion over the 4 years forward estimates.
Its all smoke and mirrors with Labor...
We have the following in trouble and who need to win convincing in their final games to have a chance to get through.
Belgium - (2nd Ranked Team) - 39% chance of going through
Argentina (3rd Ranked Team) - 44% chance of going through
Denmark (10th Ranked Team) - 28% chance of getting through to the next round. Is playing Australia though
Germany (11th Ranked Team) - 22% chance of getting through
Mexico (13th Ranked Team) - 22% chance of getting through
USA (16th Ranked Team) - 33% chance of getting through
Senegal (18th Ranked Team) - 39% chance of getting through
Wales (19th Ranked Team) - 15% chance of getting through
Doing my standard calculations of the Groups of Death. Based on my methodology of finding the variance of the top 3 in each group added to the variance of the 2nd and 3rd ranked teams we have the following in order of deadliest to safest
Group B (England, USA, Wales, Iran)
Group E (Spain, Germany, Japan, Costa Rica)
Group G (Brazil, Switzerland, Serbia, Cameroon)
Group F (Belgium, Croatia, Morocco, Canada)
Group H (Portugal, Uruguay, South Korea, Ghana)
Group C (Argentina, Mexico, Poland, Saudi Arabia)
Group D (France, Denmark, Tunisia, Australia)
Group A (Netherlands, Senegal, Ecuador, Qatar)
So no real surprise that Germany was beaten by Japan (Germany is ranked 11th, Japan, 24th...but Argentina (3) losing to Saudi Arabia(51) was a real shock.
But England (5) have some real danger games against Wales (19) and USA (16)
Read with interest that Albanese wants to increase the minimum wage by 5.1% if he becomes PM. So many things wrong with this.
1. Its not up to the Prime Minister. Minimum wage decisions are decided by Fair Work Commission which is supposed to be apolitical
2. If 5.1% got up, it would be the 6th highest increase since 1980, and the highest since 2006.
3. Inflation is already starting to climb. If you add a 5.1% increase to the minimum wage, you are basically guaranteeing increased inflation.
4. The largest increases in the minimum wage correlate to recessions a few years later. The increases in 1988 (9.1% across the year), 1989 (7.6% across the year) resulted in the Recession in 1991. The increase in 2004 (7.9%) and 2006 (5.6%) resulted in the GFC in 2008.
Lets hope this never gest up. Because if it does, Albo will be steering the ship with another "Recession we had to have" arrives.
Interesting times in the election. From all accounts Labor is in the box seat to win, Albos gaffs withstanding.
So just going to compare contrast the 2 contenders for Treasury.
The reigning champion,
Age: 50
State: Melbourne, Victoria
Religion: Jewish
Sexuality: Hetero
University Degrees:
Awards:
Fulbright Scholarship (to attend Yale)
Commonwealth Scholarship (to attend Oxford)
Jobs:
Time in Parliament: 12 Years
Ministerships held:
Married: Yes
Kids:1
The Heir Apparent,
Age: 44
State: Brisbane, QLD
Religion: Catholic
Sexuality: Hetero
University Degrees
Awards:
None
Jobs:
Time in Parliament: 9 Years
Ministerships/Shadows held:
Married: Yes
Kids:3
Conclusions:
I feel like we will be getting a politician instead of an operator if we go to Jim Chalmers. Josh has the qualifications to question Treasury, but Jim will be reliant on their expertise as his expertise is not economics, but politics.
I think we will be getting a downgrade. Expect the deficit to climb through the roof.
Today the Reserve Bank put Interest rates up to 0.35%. To be fair, probably overdue when Inflation in Australia is at 5.1%
But in reality, compared to other countries, our interest rates are still pretty low, because our inflation is still pretty low compared to the rest of the world. Lets look at the G20..
Australia is still a good place to park your money.
I read with interest about Labor's new shared Home ownership scheme it is promoting.
Basically it is saying that it will provide a portion of the Home loan for an equity stake in the home that will be redeemable on the sale of the property. It is similar to schemes in other states, like WA's Key Start program.
Have a couple of questions based on that type of scheme however.
1. By providing a portion of the mortgage, effectively the Government is providing housing finance and loans and indeed, a second mortgage over the property, similar to what commercial banks do. Will that mortgage be subject to an interest rate? One of the key criticisms of the WA keystart scheme is that the interest rate is higher than commercial lenders to encourage people off the scheme when they are able to.
2. The other issue is choice of property. Keystart in WA does not allow any property to come under the scheme. The government will actual purchase property for use for the program and only those houses are subject the Shared Ownership scheme. Will that be the case of the Commonwealth?
3. When selling the property, the WA housing authority has first claim on the property before it can be sold on the free market. By also valuing the property and potentially buying it, there is a conflict of interest inherent in the transaction. Will that be the case under the Commonwealth Scheme?
4. The WA Government sells off its loan book to other banks, effectively getting into the Mortgage Backed Security Business. Is that also the plan for the Commonwealth Scheme?
Scary stuff. The Australian Government effectively is going into the Banking business which is no place for a Government to go. The amount of funding per year will be huge. Just in WA alone in 2015/2016, the borrowing was to the tune of $1.2 billion a year. Include NSW, QLD and VIC to the scheme and you are looking at $3 billion+ a year in loans to people who generally cant get a loan with the commercial banks. These are the conditions that resulted in the GFC.
