% of 10-14 year olds on Puberty Blockers in Australia - around 0.11%

 Been looking at the whole Trans thing lately and I was wondering if there is a way to work out how many kids are on puberty blockers in Australia for Gender Dysphoria.

Stats are few and far between so we might have to extrapolate a bit.

Firstly, prior to 2013, a family court hearing was required to start children on Puberty blockers for under 18's. Post 2013 however, as long as parents and doctors agreed, it was permitted without court approval.  If we assume a transition period for the case to work its way through the medical community, we can estimate say that the use of Puberty blockers for Gender Dsyphoria started in Australia in 2015, that provides a a starting date.

In regards to how many kids get prescribed puberty blockers in Australia, only WA and QLD provide info.

WA  - 20 kids between Jan 1 and Oct 31 2025 (so that would be extrapolated to 24 for the full year). WA has approx. 194,789 kids between 10 and 14 in 2026 (extrapolated from 2016/2021 census growth), so we can say that the rate of prescription is 0.012% a year

QLD - 491 kids between 2020 -2025. So that is an average of 99 a year. QLD has approx. 389359 kids between 10 and 14 in 2026 (extrapolated from 2016/2021 census growth. So we can day the rate of prescription is 0.025% a year

If we take an average of those two, we get an Australian wide current average of 0.019%. If you apply that to the Australian number of kids aged 10-14 (1,805,012 (2026)), we have the numbers being 341 kids a year Australia wide are prescriber Puberty Blockers per year.

But that is at the current rate. If we assumed no kids were prescribed until 2014, there is 11 years of yearly prescriptions to get to 341 prescriptions. If a assume a linear rate of growth of  (341/12 = 31 cases a year we have the following scheduled

2015 - 31

2016 - 62

2017 - 93

2018 - 124

2019 - 155

2020 - 186

2021 - 217

2022 - 248

2023 - 279

2024 - 310

2025 - 341

Adding that up, that gives us a grand total of 2046 kids who have been prescribed Puberty Blockers over the last 11 years.

As a percentage of kids between 10-14 Australia, that works out to be 0.11% A pretty small percentage.

If we assume that 0.09% of kids suffer from Gender Dysphoria (estimates from the ABS), that means of 16,245 GD kids in 2025, 2046 kids have been prescribed Puberty blockers for treatment, which is around 12.6%. Which does match estimates from the US.

Labor Government Housing Budget - 2022/23

 Just been looking through the budget on housing...some dodgy ass stuff happening

The Labor government has raided the National Housing Infrastructure Fund (which was set up in 2017) to help pay for its housing initiative. However the fund was set up for infrastructure funding to local governments, not to create housing itself. Over $1 billion over the 4 years forward estimates.

Its all smoke and mirrors with Labor...

 

Top 20 ranked Soccer sides potentially going to be knocked out of the group stages of World Cup

 We have the following in trouble and who need to win convincing in their final games to have a chance to get through.

Belgium - (2nd Ranked Team) - 39% chance of going through

Argentina (3rd Ranked Team) - 44% chance of going through

Denmark (10th Ranked Team) - 28% chance of getting through to the next round. Is playing Australia though

Germany (11th Ranked Team) - 22% chance of getting through

Mexico (13th Ranked Team) - 22% chance of getting through

USA (16th Ranked Team) - 33% chance of getting through

Senegal (18th Ranked Team) - 39% chance of getting through

Wales (19th Ranked Team) - 15% chance of getting through

World Cup 2022: Groups of Death - England in the shit

 Doing my standard calculations of the Groups of Death. Based on my methodology of finding the variance of the top 3 in each group added to the variance of the 2nd and 3rd ranked teams we have the following in order of deadliest to safest

Group B (England, USA, Wales, Iran)

Group E (Spain, Germany, Japan, Costa Rica)

Group G (Brazil, Switzerland, Serbia, Cameroon)

Group F (Belgium, Croatia, Morocco, Canada)

Group H (Portugal, Uruguay, South Korea, Ghana)

Group C (Argentina, Mexico, Poland, Saudi Arabia)

Group D (France, Denmark, Tunisia, Australia)

Group A (Netherlands, Senegal, Ecuador, Qatar)

So no real surprise that Germany was beaten by Japan (Germany is ranked 11th, Japan, 24th...but Argentina (3) losing to Saudi Arabia(51) was a real shock.

But England (5) have some real danger games against Wales (19) and USA (16)

Albanese wants to increase the minimum wage by 5.1% What the actual fuck!

 Read with interest that Albanese wants to increase the minimum wage by 5.1% if he becomes PM. So many things wrong with this.

1. Its not up to the Prime Minister. Minimum wage decisions are decided by Fair Work Commission which is supposed to be apolitical

2. If 5.1% got up, it would be the 6th highest increase since 1980, and the highest since 2006.

3. Inflation is already starting to climb. If you add a 5.1% increase to the minimum wage, you are basically guaranteeing increased inflation.

4. The largest increases in the minimum wage correlate to recessions a few years later. The increases in 1988 (9.1% across the year), 1989 (7.6% across the year) resulted in the Recession in 1991. The increase in 2004 (7.9%) and 2006 (5.6%) resulted in the GFC in 2008.

Lets hope this never gest up. Because if it does, Albo will be steering the ship with another "Recession we had to have" arrives.

OZ Election 2020. Comparing the Treasurers - Frydenberg vs Chalmers

 Interesting times in the election. From all accounts Labor is in the box seat to win, Albos gaffs withstanding.

So just going to compare contrast the 2 contenders for Treasury.

The reigning champion, 

Josh Frydenberg

Age: 50

State: Melbourne, Victoria

Religion: Jewish

Sexuality: Hetero

University Degrees:

• BEc(Hons) (Monash University).
• LLB (Monash University).
• MPhil (University of Oxford).
• MPA (Harvard University).

Awards:

Fulbright Scholarship (to attend Yale)

Commonwealth Scholarship (to attend Oxford)

Jobs:

• Articled Clerk at Mallesons Stephen Jacques from 1996 to 1999.
• Assistant Adviser to the Attorney-General, the Hon. D Williams, AM, QC, 1999.
• Adviser to the Minister for Foreign Affairs, the Hon. A Downer, MP from 1999 to 2001.
• Senior Adviser to the Minister for Foreign Affairs, the Hon. A Downer, MP from 2002 to 2003.
• Senior Adviser to the Prime Minister, the Hon. J Howard, MP from 2003 to 2004.
• Director at Deutsche Bank AG from 2005 to 2009.
• Consultant at Deutsche Bank AG, 2010.

Time in Parliament: 12 Years

Ministerships held:

• Parliamentary Secretary to the Prime Minister from 18.9.2013 to 23.12.2014.
• Assistant Treasurer from 23.12.2014 to 21.9.2015.
• Minister for Resources, Energy and Northern Australia from 21.9.2015 to 19.7.2016.
• Minister for the Environment and Energy from 19.7.2016 to 28.8.2018.
• Treasurer from 28.8.2018.

Married: Yes

Kids:1

The Heir Apparent, 

Dr Jim Chalmers

Age: 44

State: Brisbane, QLD

Religion: Catholic

Sexuality: Hetero

University Degrees

• PhD (Australian National University).
• BCom (Griffith University).
• BA (Griffith University).

Awards:

None

Jobs:

• Research officer at the Department of Premier and Cabinet (Qld) from 1999 to 2001.
• Tutor in politics and public policy at Australian National University and the University of Canberra, 2001.
• National Research Manager for the Australian Labor Party from 2002 to 2004.
• Media Adviser to the Shadow Treasurer from 2005 to 2006.
• Deputy Chief of Staff to the Leader of the Opposition, 2006.
• Senior Adviser to the Premier (NSW) from 2006 to 2007.
• General Manager of CPR (Qld), 2007.
• Deputy Chief of Staff and Principal Adviser to the Treasurer from 2007 to 2010.
• Chief of Staff to the Deputy Prime Minister and Treasurer from 2010 to 2013.
• Executive Director of the Chifley Research Centre, 2013

Time in Parliament: 9 Years

Ministerships/Shadows held:

• Shadow Parliamentary Secretary to the Leader of the Opposition from 18.10.2013 to 13.10.2015.
• Shadow Parliamentary Secretary for Trade and Investment from 18.10.2013 to 13.10.2015.
• Shadow Assistant Minister for Trade and Investment from 13.10.2015 to 23.7.2016.
• Shadow Minister for Financial Services and Superannuation from 13.10.2015 to 23.7.2016.
• Shadow Assistant Minister for Productivity from 13.10.2015 to 23.7.2016.
• Shadow Minister for Sport from 13.10.2015 to 23.7.2016.
• Shadow Assistant Minister for Resources from 4.5.2016 to 23.7.2016.
• Shadow Minister for Finance from 23.7.2016 to 2.6.2019.
• Shadow Treasurer from 2.6.2019

Married: Yes

Kids:3

Conclusions:

I feel like we will be getting a politician instead of an operator if we go to Jim Chalmers. Josh has the qualifications to question Treasury, but Jim will be reliant on their expertise as his expertise is not economics, but politics.

I think we will be getting a downgrade. Expect the deficit to climb through the roof.

Interest rates up to 0.35%...still pretty low comparatively

 Today the Reserve Bank put Interest rates up to 0.35%. To be fair, probably overdue when Inflation in Australia is at 5.1%

But in reality, compared to other countries, our interest rates are still pretty low, because our inflation is still pretty low compared to the rest of the world. Lets look at the G20..

Australia is still a good place to park your money.