Top 20 ranked Soccer sides potentially going to be knocked out of the group stages of World Cup

 We have the following in trouble and who need to win convincing in their final games to have a chance to get through.

Belgium - (2nd Ranked Team) - 39% chance of going through

Argentina (3rd Ranked Team) - 44% chance of going through

Denmark (10th Ranked Team) - 28% chance of getting through to the next round. Is playing Australia though

Germany (11th Ranked Team) - 22% chance of getting through

Mexico (13th Ranked Team) - 22% chance of getting through

USA (16th Ranked Team) - 33% chance of getting through

Senegal (18th Ranked Team) - 39% chance of getting through

Wales (19th Ranked Team) - 15% chance of getting through

World Cup 2022: Groups of Death - England in the shit

 Doing my standard calculations of the Groups of Death. Based on my methodology of finding the variance of the top 3 in each group added to the variance of the 2nd and 3rd ranked teams we have the following in order of deadliest to safest

Group B (England, USA, Wales, Iran)

Group E (Spain, Germany, Japan, Costa Rica)

Group G (Brazil, Switzerland, Serbia, Cameroon)

Group F (Belgium, Croatia, Morocco, Canada)

Group H (Portugal, Uruguay, South Korea, Ghana)

Group C (Argentina, Mexico, Poland, Saudi Arabia)

Group D (France, Denmark, Tunisia, Australia)

Group A (Netherlands, Senegal, Ecuador, Qatar)

So no real surprise that Germany was beaten by Japan (Germany is ranked 11th, Japan, 24th...but Argentina (3) losing to Saudi Arabia(51) was a real shock.

But England (5) have some real danger games against Wales (19) and USA (16)