Tuesday, July 3, 2012

Why NSW hates the Carbon Tax

Been looking into a little more detail regarding the carbon Tax. For those not on the QT, it is basically a tax on those companies that have Scope 1 carbon emissions of more than 25,000 tonnes of CO2. Scope 1 emissions (as defined by National Greenhouse and Energy Reporting Regulations 2008)
"Meaning of emissions
(2) Emissions of greenhouse gas, in relation to a facility, means the release of greenhouse gas into the atmosphere as a direct result of 1 of the following:
(a) an activity, or series of activities (including ancillary activities) that constitute the facility (scope 1 emissions);
(b) 1 or more activities that generate electricity, heating, cooling or steam that is consumed by the facility but that do not form part of the facility (scope 2 emissions)."

So basically any emissions that come out as a result of a facility (rather than an electrical bill)
For those companies, they have to pay $23 for each Tonne emitted. That payment goes straight into the Federal Governments coffers.
Now looking at the top emitters, it is pretty much power generators that have the highest Scope 1 emissions. Here are the top 10, by name, ownership and their liability (based on 2010 emissions figures)

1. Macquarie Generation (NSW Government) $467,607,000
2. Delta Electricity (NSW Government) $455,000,000
3.Great Energy Alliance Corporation Pty Ltd (Private Company) $446,000,000
4. International Power (Australia) Holdings Pty Ltd (Private Company) $385,000,000
5.TRUEnergy Holdings Pty Ltd (Private Company) $371,000,000
6. C S Energy Limited (QLD Government) $342,000,000
7. Eraring Energy (NSW Government) $269,000,000
8. BlueScope Steel (Public Company) $261,000,000
9. Loy Yang Holdings Pty Ltd (Private company, owned by AGL) $233,000,000
10. OZGEN Holdings Australia Pty Ltd (Private Company) $223,000,000

Of the top 10, the first, second and seventh are owned by the NSW state government. And they receive absolutely no assistance from the Federal Government, unlike the private companies in that list that receive 100's of millions in assistance.
So the NSW government will have absolutely no choice but to put up electricity bills once again to compensate for the extra $1.2 billion or so a year that they will have to pay in the Carbon tax. I expect NSW power bills will go through the roof once again.

Prediction for the Reserve Bank - Cut rates 0.25%

Gutsy prediction this, but the Goat-a-meter still thinks things are pretty bad. Inflation expectations have dropped into the low twos (2.16%), Commodity prices have also dropped. On the plus side (comparatvely speaking), unemployment has increased but still pretty low.
If I was the reserve, I would be thinking of dropping another quarter of a percent.But then again, they may be adopting a wait and see approach. I guess we will see this afternoon!