Tuesday, May 28, 2019
Monday, May 20, 2019
Australian Federal Election - Morrison wins!
Well there you go. I sort of picked the fact that the polls could have been deceptive. Should have put some money on it! :-)
Anyway, lets see how we did.
Averaging the last set of 9 polls, we get the following primary votes
Coalition : 38.05
Labor : 35.38
Greens : 9.81
ON : 4.65
UAP : 4.41
Others : 7.70
Now the election result looks like the following
Coalition : 41.38 (3.33% difference from poll)
Labor : 33.88 (1.5% difference)
Greens : 10.05 (0.24% difference)
ON : 2.99 (1.66% difference)
UAP : 3.36 (1.05% difference)
Others : 8.34 (0.64% difference)
So all up, not too bad. With the exception of the primary votes for Co-alition, the other results are within 1.66%
But missing the Coalition vote by 3% is huge and really was the difference in the 2PP result
Anyway, lets see how we did.
Averaging the last set of 9 polls, we get the following primary votes
Coalition : 38.05
Labor : 35.38
Greens : 9.81
ON : 4.65
UAP : 4.41
Others : 7.70
Now the election result looks like the following
Coalition : 41.38 (3.33% difference from poll)
Labor : 33.88 (1.5% difference)
Greens : 10.05 (0.24% difference)
ON : 2.99 (1.66% difference)
UAP : 3.36 (1.05% difference)
Others : 8.34 (0.64% difference)
So all up, not too bad. With the exception of the primary votes for Co-alition, the other results are within 1.66%
But missing the Coalition vote by 3% is huge and really was the difference in the 2PP result
Monday, May 13, 2019
Australian Federal election - Getting closer,will come down to preferences
Election is due next Saturday.
Be interesting to see what will happen. Labor definitely in the box seat, but a path does exists for ScoMo and his merry Coalition nutters to come from behind and take the biscuits.
Based on the average of the latest 7 polls over the last two weeks, we can have a go at predicting what the primary votes will be
Looks like
Liberals/Nationals: 38.1%
Labor: 35.4%
Greens: 10.4%
UAP: 6.2%
One Nation: 5%
Other : 4.9%
Based on preference flows from last election (Greens giving 83% to Labor. ON giving 47%, and UAP giving 48%, Other giving 50%) translates to a TPP to Labor of 52/48 which will be enough for a Labor victory.
However, there are a few rogue elements in the mix. Firstly, UAP has a formal preference deal with the Liberals (which they didn't have before). Should hopefully mean more preference flow to Coalition so hopefully less of the UAP vote will go to the coalition. Also UAP is contesting all 151 seats in the lower house. And the One Nation footprint has also increased. In 2016, One Nation only competed in 15 seats. This time, they are competing in 59.
If UAP and One Nation give their preferences at 71/29 to the Coaltion, there will be a positive swing to the Coalition which means ScoMo will stay as PM.
Be interesting to see what will happen. Labor definitely in the box seat, but a path does exists for ScoMo and his merry Coalition nutters to come from behind and take the biscuits.
Based on the average of the latest 7 polls over the last two weeks, we can have a go at predicting what the primary votes will be
Looks like
Liberals/Nationals: 38.1%
Labor: 35.4%
Greens: 10.4%
UAP: 6.2%
One Nation: 5%
Other : 4.9%
Based on preference flows from last election (Greens giving 83% to Labor. ON giving 47%, and UAP giving 48%, Other giving 50%) translates to a TPP to Labor of 52/48 which will be enough for a Labor victory.
However, there are a few rogue elements in the mix. Firstly, UAP has a formal preference deal with the Liberals (which they didn't have before). Should hopefully mean more preference flow to Coalition so hopefully less of the UAP vote will go to the coalition. Also UAP is contesting all 151 seats in the lower house. And the One Nation footprint has also increased. In 2016, One Nation only competed in 15 seats. This time, they are competing in 59.
If UAP and One Nation give their preferences at 71/29 to the Coaltion, there will be a positive swing to the Coalition which means ScoMo will stay as PM.
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