Now that seems a little low for me. Most people report paying around $7000 a year in out of pocket expenses for Cancer treatment.
So the first thing to work out is how many people are living with cancer in the Community. To find that out, we need the following info
1. A starting point (i.e a year where we know how many people there are with cancer)
2. Growth in New Cancer rates
3. Growth in Cancer Deaths
4. Obtain a rough estimate of how many cancers go into remission a year.
Then we can answer our algorithm of
Cancer people (Year N) = Cancer People (Year N-1) + New Cancers - Cancer Deaths - Cancer remissions
In regards to Point 1 - Cancer Council stated that in 2012 there were 421124 people who had cancer. So we have a starting point.
In regards to Point 2 - Cancer Council stated that in 2014 there 127887 new diagnosis of cancer. In 2018 there were 138321. So we have a cancer diagnosis growth rate of 1.98% a year
In regards to Point 3 - Cancer Council stated that in 2016 there were 45782 deaths from Cancer. In 2018, there were 48586. So we have a growth in Cancer deaths of approx 3% a year.
In regards to Point 4 - Cancer Council stated that in 2014, the 5 years survival rate of cancer = 69%. If we assume that stays consistant, it means between 2012-2016, all deaths should add up to 31% of the total cancer cases in 2016. Based on our simulated cancer cases, we have total cancer deaths = 215,508 deaths over that 5 year period. Means total Cancer cases in 2016 should be 215508/.31 = 695,190.
Our algorith for cancer people (Year N) = Cancer People (Year N-1) + New Cancers - Cancer Deaths - Cancer remissions
So solving for our Cancer remissions, we try to find the number of Cancer Remissions every ear between 2012-2016 that end up at our total cancer cases = 695,190. The closest is that the number of Cancer remissions = (Number of Cases+New Cases)*2.4%
So combining all this info and extropolating the growth rates both forwards and backwards, we get the following
So based on that, in 2018, we have appox 829,661 people with cancer, or around 3.3% of the population. If everyone of them gets 7,000 from the government, its going to cost $5.8 Billion a year
