Congrats to the 37% of applicants who passed. Commiserations to those that didn't.
(Don't lose too much hope, I didn't pass the first time either)
Onto Level 2........
Wednesday, January 23, 2013
Friday, January 18, 2013
How much is the MRRT earning - Around $414 million a quarter
Lots of controversy in the press regarding the Mineral Resource Rent Tax and how the Tax department can't give out any information to the Treasurer as it would violate Privacy. Pleasseeeeeee.
How a Government Department (even the Taxation department) that isn't indepentent by any means (unlike the Reserve Bank) can deny information from it's head is rubbish in my opinion. So why the secrecy.
Here at Goat central, we like to get to the bottom of things. So I have created an extremely simplistic econometric model to see if I can separate the wheat from the chaff so to speak. The model is as follows
Quarterly Resource Rent tax earnings for the present quarter = constant + A*(Quarterly Resource Rent Earnings for previous quarter) + B*(Dummy Variable of MRRT applied) + C*(CPI for the quarter)+Error
As mentioned, very simplistic, but the Co-efficient of the Dummy Variable should give us a rough estimate of how much the MRRT earns in a quarter. (though as we have figures for only 1 quarter of the MRRT, it is an extremely rough estimate). Be better once we have the next couple of quarters.
I optained the monthly data of earnings from the total RRT (which includes both PRRT and MRRT) from the monthly and annual statements on www.finance.gov.au (to gain quarterly, I added up the earnings from the previous 3 months). CPI data I located from www.abs.gov.au (which is the annual change in the prices from same quarter of previous year). I then loaded it all into excel and performed an OLS regression. Results are
Quarterly Resource Rent Tax earnings = 60.2+0.295*(Quarterly Resource Rent Earnings for previous quarter)+414.63*(Dummy Variable of MRRT applied)+6678.94*(CPI for quarter)
(all co-efficient figures in millions)
Adjusted R2 = 0.21
Error = 158.76
So based on this, the MRRT is earning roughly $414.63 million in it's first quarter. It is statistically significantly different from zero at the 95% confidence interval (this confidence interval is $765 million (max) to $56 million (min)) So even at it's most optimistic, the MRRT is likely to earn only $3 billion a year, and with the PRRT only likely to hit $1.5 billion (5 year average), it's a far cry from the $7.5 billion budgeted by Treasury. It's a $3 billion black hole.
No wonder the Government want to hide the figures.
How a Government Department (even the Taxation department) that isn't indepentent by any means (unlike the Reserve Bank) can deny information from it's head is rubbish in my opinion. So why the secrecy.
Here at Goat central, we like to get to the bottom of things. So I have created an extremely simplistic econometric model to see if I can separate the wheat from the chaff so to speak. The model is as follows
Quarterly Resource Rent tax earnings for the present quarter = constant + A*(Quarterly Resource Rent Earnings for previous quarter) + B*(Dummy Variable of MRRT applied) + C*(CPI for the quarter)+Error
As mentioned, very simplistic, but the Co-efficient of the Dummy Variable should give us a rough estimate of how much the MRRT earns in a quarter. (though as we have figures for only 1 quarter of the MRRT, it is an extremely rough estimate). Be better once we have the next couple of quarters.
I optained the monthly data of earnings from the total RRT (which includes both PRRT and MRRT) from the monthly and annual statements on www.finance.gov.au (to gain quarterly, I added up the earnings from the previous 3 months). CPI data I located from www.abs.gov.au (which is the annual change in the prices from same quarter of previous year). I then loaded it all into excel and performed an OLS regression. Results are
Quarterly Resource Rent Tax earnings = 60.2+0.295*(Quarterly Resource Rent Earnings for previous quarter)+414.63*(Dummy Variable of MRRT applied)+6678.94*(CPI for quarter)
(all co-efficient figures in millions)
Adjusted R2 = 0.21
Error = 158.76
So based on this, the MRRT is earning roughly $414.63 million in it's first quarter. It is statistically significantly different from zero at the 95% confidence interval (this confidence interval is $765 million (max) to $56 million (min)) So even at it's most optimistic, the MRRT is likely to earn only $3 billion a year, and with the PRRT only likely to hit $1.5 billion (5 year average), it's a far cry from the $7.5 billion budgeted by Treasury. It's a $3 billion black hole.
No wonder the Government want to hide the figures.
Gillard GoatMeter - 52.5/47.5 to the Libs
Time for the first update in the new Year. After the last two new polls from Essential and NewsPoll we have the Coalition extending their lead over Labor. And it's an election year. Doesn't look good for Gillard.
Thursday, January 10, 2013
ARM'ing the ASX
As a night time side project from my day job, I have been busy honing my Java skills, creating a program that downloads price information for the entire ASX from Yahoo Finance and then calculates the ARMS index (or TRIN).
The TRIN is a useful little technical tool and can give you insight into general market sentiment. To calculate, use the following formula :-
(Number of stocks increasing/Number of stocks decreasing)/(Volume of stocks increasing/Volume of stocks decreasing)
Over last two days, the TRIN has gone from 0.88 to 0.89, indicating that buyers are in the asendency at the moment (anything under 1 means people are buying, over 1, people are selling)
A figure at around 0.9 is always a good sign for the bulls and a great indicator that the All Ordinaries will continue to increase at least in the short term
However the fact that it is going up slightly indicates that maybe the rally is starting to stall. Once it cuts over 1, I think it would indicate that maybe the selloff has begun.
But this is all academic until the fundies get back in the game (I think most of are still out sking in Aspen). Hard to tell anything with the low volumes being bought and sold at the moment, so don't hold me to account just yet. Still, I can at least say my Java skills are coming along :-)
Will keep you posted if there are any changes.
The TRIN is a useful little technical tool and can give you insight into general market sentiment. To calculate, use the following formula :-
(Number of stocks increasing/Number of stocks decreasing)/(Volume of stocks increasing/Volume of stocks decreasing)
Over last two days, the TRIN has gone from 0.88 to 0.89, indicating that buyers are in the asendency at the moment (anything under 1 means people are buying, over 1, people are selling)
A figure at around 0.9 is always a good sign for the bulls and a great indicator that the All Ordinaries will continue to increase at least in the short term
However the fact that it is going up slightly indicates that maybe the rally is starting to stall. Once it cuts over 1, I think it would indicate that maybe the selloff has begun.
But this is all academic until the fundies get back in the game (I think most of are still out sking in Aspen). Hard to tell anything with the low volumes being bought and sold at the moment, so don't hold me to account just yet. Still, I can at least say my Java skills are coming along :-)
Will keep you posted if there are any changes.
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