Economic Rigor

No sign of the impending "Big Short" as yet. Stats as below Type Sample Average Min Max Change 2brh   888      1,146,593.88           1,117,876.03    1,175,311.72 0.27% 3brh   3351      1,248,655.33           1,231,814.91    1,265,495.75 -0.03% 4brh   2699      1,471,892.16           1,446,662.80    1,497,121.53 0.28% Type Average Min Max 2 Bedroom Unit 2246          837,133.84              824,506.86        849,760.81 0.15% 3 Bedroom Un...

Been looking into the Satellite Records produced by Roy Spencer at the UAH specifically around the Lower Troposphere http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0beta/tlt/uahncdc_lt_6.0beta5.txt Been interested to see how the rates of warming have changed. I did some regressions, starting at 1979 (the first reference in the satellite record) and then tracked the trend rates for each decade, using 1979 as my starting point for each period (a way of removing any cherry picking accusations) Wanted to see if the trend has changed, and see if it had increased or decreased. Anyway, here are the temperature trends from the satellite records of the Lower Troposphere recorded over Australia.; The figures are all anomalies from the 30-year (1981-2010) average 1978.12 - 1988.12: 0.02223 a decade (Not Statistically significant at 95% confidence interval) 1978.12 - 1998.12: 0.20949 a decade 1978.12 - 2008.12: 0.20455 a decade 1978.12 - 2016.1: 0.14897 a decade So as you can se...

House Prices up again. Stats as per usual Type Sample Average Min Max Change 2brh   867      1,143,508.48           1,114,267.63    1,172,749.32 0.30% 3brh   3261      1,249,003.65           1,231,908.98    1,266,098.32 0.20% 4brh   2625      1,467,733.31           1,442,394.63    1,493,072.00 0.10% Type Average Min Max 2 Bedroom Unit 2190          835,863.49              823,129.78        848,597.20 0.15% 3 Bedroom Unit 938  ...

Been looking at the debate going on about Negative Gearing of property in the media in response to Labors new policy to only apply negative gearing to new property (an idea that seems spookily familiar...see my posts from March last year :-) A lot of stuff being thrown about, so wanted to get some facts out there. I downloaded the tax statistics from 2012-2013 and did some analysis. And here it is People claiming negative gearing tax deductions: 1,260,000 (which is 9.8% of total tax payers) Percentage of taxpayers with total income between $50,000 and $100,000 who Negative Gear Property : 12.2% Percentage of taxpayers with total income $100,001 and over who Negative Gear Property :19.6% Amount of tax forgone as a result of Negative Gearing of Property : $3.791 Billion Percentage of tax forgone that goes to taxpayers with total income between $50,000 and $100,000 who Negative Gear Property : 38% Percentage of tax forgone ...

Well who would have thought it. Ryan Reynolds is going to be huge! This is a guy whose previous work has only exceeded $300 million twice (Wolverine, The Proposal), both of which he was hardly the drawcard. Now he will helm a movie making over a billion. Could be the one that gives him the keys to the A-List? Or not.

Everyone complaining about how badly Zoolander 2 did at the box office...I doin't think it did that badly to be honest. Same open as Zoolander 1, around 15 million. It's just that compared to "DeadPool " it looks ordinary. Should break even though...using my formula, I estimate around a $135,000,000 box office worldwide. At a budget of $50,000,000 that means that it is profitable, if not a smash.

First temperature check on the Housing market in the new year and the trend down continues. Stats as per normal House Type Sample Average Min Max Change Average 2 Bedroom House 840      1,140,063.31           1,110,746.83    1,169,379.79 -0.30% 3 Bedroom House 3191      1,246,528.49           1,229,284.57    1,263,772.41 -0.05% 4 Bedroom House 2565      1,466,277.37           1,440,582.73    1,491,972.00 -0.02% Unit Type Average Min Max 2 Bedroom Unit 2145          834,601.06         ...