Who hurts most from recessions? Its the extremes that suffer most

With all the talk of the budget's effect on the poor, I was curious what sort of impact another recession might cause to incomes, based on the affect of the recession in 2008/2009 and income growth before that vs income growth after.

If you look at the 13 years before (and including 2007-2008) we had the below income growth (compounding) per year for the following quintiles

Lowest quintile : 3.95%
Second quintile : 3.75%
Third quintile : 3.62%
Fourth quintile : 3.08%
Highest quintile : 4.71%

After the recession and including the 17 years before (and including 2011-2012) we had the below income growth (compounding)

Lowest quintile : 2.51%
Second quintile : 2.77%
Third quintile : 2.69%
Fourth quintile : 2.67%
Highest quintile : 3.10%

So as a result of the recession, we have the following drop in the growth of incomes

1.61% Highest quintile
1.44% Lowest quintile
0.98% Second quintile
0.93% Third quintile
0.41% Fourth quintile

So if the rich can afford the income growth drop, surely a recession is most especially bad for the poor, who really need the increased income growth for wealth creation.
Maybe for those who are so concerned about the needy in society, it's time to get onto the Hockey plan, especially if it help prevent recessions in the future which will again curtail the poor's ability to improve their prosperity.

Bill Shorten's Budget Reply - Make me a believer!

Well, Bill did his reply...almost 600 more words than Hockey and a load more retorical questions. Got sick of replacing question marks in my word cloud code :-)

Anyway, top 10 nouns in the cloud (i'm taking the Budget as a noun)

Budget - 49 times
Prime -  35 times
Australia - 34 times
Australians - 30 times
Labor - 28 times
Minister - 26 times
People - 23 times
Australian - 21 times
Family - 17 times
Government - 15 times

Contrast this to the top 10 nouns of Hockey's speech

Government - 30 times
Budget - 29 times
People - 21 times
Billion - 20 times
Year - 17 times
Years - 12 times
Australia - 11 times
Family - 11 times
Nation - 11 times
Research - 11 times

So we have the common words
Government
Budget
People
Australia
Family

Which leaves the Govenment focussed on Billion, Year, Years, Nation and Research vs Labor's Prime, Australians, Labor, Minister, Australins.

Do you think Bill is focussed more on the Prime Minister, that he (Shorten) is from Labor and appealing to Patriotism, whereas Hockey seems to be more about dollars, timeframes, the nation and Reasearch.

Guess that is the difference between a Budget and a Budget Reply!

Top 10 verbs of Bill's

Will - 42 times
Cuts - 12 times
Make -12 times
Believe - 11 times
Can - 9 times
Tax - 9 times
Cut - 8 times
Pay - 8 times
Support - 8 times
Work - 8 times

Hockey's verbs

Will - 83 times
Build - 22 times
Can - 12 times
Help - 12 times
Work - 11 times
Fund - 10 times
Contribute - 9 times
Tax - 9 times
Start - 8 times
Support - 8 times

Take out the common elements of Will, Can, Tax, Work and Support
So you have  Hockey is talking about Building, Helping, Funding, Contributing and Starting; whereas Shorten reckons its all about Cutting (twice), making, believing, and paying.

Maybe this means Shorten thinks it's all Make Believe!

Treasurer's Speech - Plenty of will

Been running my word clouder over the Treasurer's budget speech....did you know "Will" was mentioned 83 times! That's a lot of will.
Other interesting results

"Government" mentioned 30 times
"Budget" 29 times
"Build" 22 times
"People" 21 times
"Billion" 20 times
"new" 17 times
"now" 17 times

Contrast this with Wayne Swans last budget in 2013.

"Economy" mentioned 29 times
"Billion" 27 times
"Australia" 26 times
"Speaker" 23 times
"Will" 22 times
"Tonight" 21 times
"Budget" 20 times
"Million" 20 times

So what can we say about the two speeches. Hockey is all about the Governments Budget, that it is new, its going to build stuff and is happening now and they Will do stuff.

Wayne Swan was all about the economy, focused on the dollars and talking to the speaker that night , rather than the people. And that they will do stuff, but not as much.

RBA Monetary Policy Statements - Last three months

Been playing around with VBA in excel trying to create word clouds and the like.

One of the areas I have been focusing on is the Monetary Policy releases from the RBA. Trying to detect changes in tone etc to see if I can accurately predict the next move in interest rates from the language.

Couple of interesting things from the last three months.

1. The RBA seems to be focusing on more local issues now...in the May RBA release, there is no mention of another country except China, as opposed to March and April which mentioned the Euro Zone and the US.

2. A lot more present tense use. Less waiting for something to happen and now more is happening.

3. Number of words in the statements are increasing. From 428 words in March to 486 in May. Trying to justify it's lack of movement perhaps

4. "Fragile" has disappeared from the word list and "Strong" has now appeared

5. Using a very basic weighting system assigned to each word to reflect a "positive" value as opposed to a negative value, I have the language improving over the last few months, from a weighting of 21 in March to 33 in May.

So based on this, it certainly does seem that the RBA will increase rates before decreasing hem. But it is looking inward at the moment, probably because of the budget tomorrow night. Less about the externals, more about the internals at this time.

Least Profitable Movies with 2013 Equivalent Budgets of $100 million of more

Using the same methodology as the previous posts, I wanted to see what were the top 10 box office bombs...those movies with a budget of $100 million or more (in 2013 equivalent dollars) that had the worse profitability. And here they are...

1. The Adventures of Pluto Nash
2. Heavens Gate
3. Mars needs Moms
4. The Postman
5. Hudson Hawk
6. Timeline
7. Virus
8. Red Planet
9. The 13th Warrior
10. Son of the Mask

Quality list of the dodgiest movies of all time!

Most profitable Movies - in 2013 dollars

Being a big fan of movies, I stumbled upon some data from Nate Silvers blog (fivethirtyeight.com). Basically gave you a list of around 1600 movies since the 1970's and their budgets and revenues (and also adjusted to 2013 dollars so you could do an accurate comparison). So using this data you could actually get the gross profits over a period of time for a lot of movies.

Now I was interested in the most profitable movies based on revenue per dollar of budget. (sort of an inverse gross profit ratio). Surprising figures really..all the big movies aren't really in the list, due to those large budgets. The top 10 most profitable movies are, in order from most profitable are :-

Paranormal Activity

The Blair Witch Project
El Mariachi
The Texas Chain Saw Massacre
The Towering Inferno
Rocky
American Graffiti
Clerks.
The Rocky Horror Picture Show
In the Company of Men

Horror seems to be the best option really, with 4 in the top 10. Paranormal Activity made $610 revenue per dollar of budget. Not bad if you were bankrolling that beauty.