Australia's potential INCEL group - increase of 2.37% of single males 20-29 in 10 years

The INCEL movement (or involuntary celibate movement) has been getting a lot of press lately due to the fact the group is prone to violent undertakings against women.


So being the good little statistician, I was wondering what was the likely hood that we had some of this movement in Australia.


According to most reporting on the group, the INCEL movement is most active in the 20-29 male age group that are not married or in de facto relationships (as most sex actually happens in steady/stable relationships)


So based on those criteria, and the ABS census information of 2006,2011 and 2016, we have the following results


There has in fact been a large increase in this grouping. In 2006, the % of 20-29 males not in a stable de facto or Married relationship was at 59.54%


By 2016, this group had increased 2.37% to 61.91% That 2.37% means an additional 38K potentially sexually frustrated young men in the mix. Compare that to the group of unmarried females in that same age group, which has only increased by 1.77% over that same time period, from 51.52% to 53.29%


That is quite a large differential between the un marrieds in the age group. And the danger is that because older men (with more resources) also compete for the 20-29 unmarried females, the 20-29 males are even more likely to be left without sex.


Food for thought!

Indigenous marriage rates in 2016: Now at 19.5% between 20-49

Been looking at some marriage rates in Australia based on the 2016/2011 census. A couple of surprising things jump out, especially in regards to Marriage.


Marriage is often held up as the best place to raise children, due to the stability and economic protections it offers, but there are some concerns that more and more people are raising kids in de facto relationships, which could have some impacts on child development. So I wanted to see if this was the case.


And it does appear to be true. There are some reductions in marriage in the child rearing years


In 2011, the % of non-Indigenous people between 20-49 (prime child bearing years) that were married was at 44.37%. By 2016, that had dropped to 42.60%


But the biggest concern is Indigenous Australia. In 2011, the % of Indigenous (Aboriginal/TSI/both) between 20-49 that were married was at a lowly 20.56%. By 2016, that had dropped further to 19.50%


You want to know why Indigenous Australians are not getting ahead in comparison to non-Indigenous? This could be a reason.

Changes to Full-time and Part-time unemployment rates - By Gender

Interesting to see how unemployment rates have changed over the years. Good news is that all unemployment (Male Part Time, Male Full Time, Female Part Time, Female Full Time) have dropped over the years. Most have dropped by around 6-7% a year. But Female Full time unemployment has dropped by 11% a year. Quality.


Still, if you are a male looking for part time work, you are the most likely to be unemployed (all stats from the ABS)

Gender Equality of Unemployment - 1978-2018

Seems pretty equal to me.