AUS Vs INDIA 2nd TEST - Statistical Analysis - Lyon heroics not enough

Well, the results of the second test were pretty convincing....Australia wins.


And once again I will go to my old friend the z-score to try and explain why this is...


It appears in the batting, you either played well or had a shocker. Only 3 players had standard ok games (z-scores of between 0.5 and -0.5)...Marsh, Pujara and Vihari










In Batting, quality players (z-score of > 0.5 SD)










V Kohli (INDIA) - z-score of 2.58
MS Harris (AUS) - z-score of 1.26
AM Rahane (INDIA) - z-score of  1.02
TM Head (AUS) - z-score of 0.92
UT Khawaja (AUS) - z-score of  0.92
TD Paine (AUS) - z-score of 0.86
AJ Finch (AUS) - z-score of 0.86
RR Pant (INDIA) - z-score of 0.63






Kohli showed his class this game, and again Rahane was effective. For Australia, most of the top 6 got runs.






The dodgy players (z-score of <- -0="" .5="" 0.5="" p="" sd="">

Mohammed Shami (INDIA) - z-score of -1.12
I Sharma (INDIA) - z-score of -1.09
KL Rahul (INDIA) - z-score of -1.07
JJ Bumrah (INDIA) - z-score of  -1.01
UT Yadav (INDIA) - z-score of  -0.96
NM Lyon (AUS) - z-score of  -0.75
JR Hazlewood (AUS) - z-score of -0.67
M Vijay (INDIA) - z-score of -0.59
PJ Cummins (AUS) - z-score of -0.59
MA Starc (AUS) - z-score of -0.59
PSP Handscomb (AUS) - z-score of -0.59


Bowlers well represented in the bottom list as expected, but Handscomb, Rahul and Vijay are top order batsman and need to do better.


In bowling it was really all Lyon, though Bumrah had another good game.


Lyon (AUS) - z-score of 1.66
I Sharma (IND) - z-score of 0.87
JJ Bumrah (IND) - z-score of 0.70


On the crap list


M Vijay (IND) - z-score of -1.77 (with only 1 over)
UT Yadav (IND) - z-score of -1.11
GH Vihari (IND) - z-score of -0.69


For the Starc haters, Starc had a worse game, statistically, this game than the first test. Got a z-score of 0.04 this test compared to 0.96 in the first.


So all up, India's bowlers weren't too bad, though Yadav needs to get dropped, ASAP. Had a shocker. The loss of Ashwin has pretty apparent. Was won in the batting this test with a welcome return to form by our blademen and some dodgy opening by the Indians.

IT Managed Services Companies in 2016/2017

ATO published their annual tax data for Australian companies earning over 100 Million in Revenue, and again, it is very eye opening in regards to the IT Industry in Australia.


I did this analysis back in 2015, but decided to do it again in 2018 to see how it has changed.


And change it has. About 10% of the revenue value appears to have been wiped off the industry. In 2013/14, the combined Managed Services biggies appeared to pull in $15.7 billion. Now it is only $14.2 billion. That's destruction of $1.5 billion out of the industry. Huge.


And its easy to see who the biggest losers are. IBM and HP.


IBM Australia went from having revenues of $4.6 billion in 2013/2014 to $3.3 billion in 2016/2017. A drop of 28% over 3 years. HP Australia was worse though...revenues of $3.1 billion in 2013/2014 down to 1.6 billion in 2016/2017. A drop of 48%!


And its interesting to see the various strategies being employed by those MS providers to survice. It appears Accenture and Data3 have picked up a bit of work...growing their revenue over 30% And the pure play Indian outfits of Infosys, TATA and Wipro have definitely gained acceptance.


Here are the stats.

AUS vs IND First test - Statistical washup - Pujara played out of his skin.

Well India takes first blood as I predicted. Played well. Australia stayed in it, but our top order looks dicey.




Wanted to perform a statistical analysis about who played the best. So I turn to my trusty friend, the z-score (score-average/SD), to give me the good oil.




On the batting, if I calculate the z-score on total runs...we only have 3 players who batted with a z-score of over 0.5 (which is my benchmark for quality play)




CA Pujara: z-score of 3.1!!!
TM Head - z-score of 1
AM Rahane - z-score of 0.93




On the poor performing side we have 5 players who had poor batting displays




JR Hazlewood: z-score of -0.83
AJ Finch: z-score of -0.89
Mohammed Shami: z-score of -1.02
I Sharma: z-score of -1.07
JJ Bumrah: z-score of  -1.17




Finch had a shocker. Needs to do better than this as an opening batsman. The rest are bowlers so can be forgiven.


On the bowling side, if I calculate the z-score on wickets/runs (i.e the inverse of average), we get the following over 0.5




JJ Bumrah: z-score of 1.17!!
MA Starc: z-score of 0.96
JR Hazlewood: z-score of 0.60
Mohammed Shami: z-score of 0.52




On the poor performing side we have




PJ Cummins: z-score of -0.68
TM Head: z-score of -1.76
M Vijay: z-score of -1.76




Again, Cummins had a shocker. The other 2 are not established bowlers so are forgiven. Funny that Lyon is not included, with his 8 wickets, but he bled a lot of runs.


So the difference really was in the batting. Pujara played at 3 Standard Deviations better than the rest. Can't get too much better than that.


Bowling was pretty equal, but Cummins was poor.

AUS vs IND - First Test Cricket - India to win

Taking a break from my economic analysis to have a quick statistical analysis of the Cricket playing today, Australia vs India in the first test.

India looks like they have bought a pretty good squad with them this year, and Australia is looking a bit raw. Here are the pertinent AUS stats

As you can see, a pretty inexperienced squad with some low batting numbers. Bowling looks ok though.

Compare that to the IND stats

Indians are younger, more experienced, have some serious guns in the batting and have a bowling attack that equals ours.

Doesn't look good. While I would usually back Australia at home, I think we might be in trouble this year.

Why the French are protesting - France not well served by their economic leaders

Paris is in flames at the moment, mainly due to their economy. And Macron believes increasing taxes is going to pull the economy out of the malaise. Unlikely based on historic events.


The only way France is going to grow is if they can increase their hours worked. Taxes aren't going to help.