Coronavirus (COV-19) in NSW - Don't Panic

I was in a team meeting today and one of my co-workers said I shouldn't go to a conference in the city as there would be a chance I would get exposed to someone who had COV-19 and hence be put in quarantine.

For me that sounds like a stretch, but lets do the math.

At present there is 67 NSW confirmed cases of COV-19. This is after 50 days of exposure to the virus, so its not spreading rapidly for one..

But lets assume that 67 is not all the Coronavirus cases out there. As a benchmark, globally, South Korea seems the most aggressive country in regards to testing, so might be the true stat on how many cases out there.

Based on a population of 51 million, after 50 days, they have 7513 cases. This means their infection daily rate is

2.94627E-06

Applying that daily rate to the NSW population (7.95 Million) and 50 days, and the NSW cases should be 1172 cases. Which means there are at least 1105 people out there who have Corona but have yet to be detected.

So what are my chances of getting exposed to one of these 1172 cases. Well with a population of 7.95 Million, it is 1 in 6788 people

So as long as I avoid groups of more than 6788 people, I should be fine (statistically). Doesn't bode well for the Sydney Easter Show unfortunately.

But in the mean time, conference on friends. conference on.