Sydney House Prices 26/09/2015: Average 3 bedroom house now sells for $1,243,947.12 (up 0.51%)

Lots of stories in the press about how the Housing market has peaked...According to my analysis, no sign of it so far. Still going up. Stats for this week.

House	Type		Sample	Average	Min	Max	Change
Average	2 Bedroom House		525	1,144,506.88	1,108,687.20	1,180,326.55	0.11%
	3 Bedroom House		2082	1,243,947.12	1,222,428.55	1,265,465.69	0.51%
	4 Bedroom House		1611	1,461,308.41	1,428,670.98	1,493,945.84	-0.25%
Unit	Type			Average	Min	Max
	2 Bedroom Unit		1440	825,667.85	809,050.38	842,285.31	0.38%
	3 Bedroom Unit		605	1,135,639.82	1,092,998.05	1,178,281.58	0.86%

Where the chicks at!

The ABS released their population report today. One of the things I like to check is if I was a single male between 25-39 (marriage age), which state would be the best to live in...i.e which state has more women (20-34) per male (25-39). And the results are:


ACT:              1.0290  eligible females per eligible male
Queensland:   1.0285  eligible females per eligible male
Tasmania:      1.0257 eligible females per eligible male
Victoria:         1.0177 eligible females per eligible male
NSW:             1.0082 eligible females per eligible male
SA:                 1.0073 eligible females per eligible male
WA:                0.9378 eligible females per eligible male
NT                  0.8674 eligible females per eligible male.


So if you are young, single and male, head to Canberra! (Our newest Federal front bencher in Parliament, 25 year old Wyatt Roy must be having a field day!)

Historical Economic Growth Series - Greece

Using my figures from the conference board again, I tracked the Greek economy from 1950-2015. It's been a bit of a basket case for a while, but the GFC really did kick their butt.









 My boom to bust ratio for Greece is 27.5% (that is number of booms(Actual Growth>(Potential Growth+2*SD)) divided by number of busts(Actual Growth<(Potential Growth-2*SD))


Contrast that with Australia (69.5%) and the US (47%)


By the way, Potential GDP is calculated using the (Average Labour Hours growth)+(Average Labour Productivity growth)

Economic Growth in Australia/US - 1950 to 2015

Been looking into Economic Growth statistics over the last 60 odd years. The conference Board publish the historical data which is pretty interesting.
What I wanted to calculate was Output gaps (i.e The difference between Potential GDP Growth and Actual GDP growth, to kind of gain an insight into how Australia is doing. If Australia is doing poorly, it's actual GDP growth would be below the potential (I have classified a "Bust" as 2 Standard Deviations below the potential..if actual GDP growth is below that lower range, we are in potential recessionary conditions). Same with a Boom. (if actual GDP growth is above the 2 Standard Deviations above the potential, we are in Boom conditions). And the results are below





As you can see, the Australian recovery from 2008's recessionary conditions hasn't been great. Only just heading back into the "Safe zone". Also shows we haven't had a "boom" year since 1998, though 2007 did come close. And that "Recession we had to have" in 1991 really was a shocker.


Compare this to the US economic growth history for example. The US is whole less volatile, that is for sure.







Also shows how bad the 2007/2008/2009 GFC was for their economy. But it also shows how quickly they recovered to the "safe zone" To be fair though, the US hasn't had a "boom" year since 1984! Go "The Gipper"!