Star Wars: The Force Awakens World Wide Box office Prediction: $1,703,299,579

Always tough to predict a box office before the opening weekend. However, given the hype, I think it will be in the same range as Jurassic World. Probably around $200 million.


Based on my formula that incorporates box office, IMDB review score (currently at 9.2...I would expect that to go down) and whether it is part of a franchise, I predict the movie will earn around $1.7 billion or so at the box office.  Not bad for a 200 million budget movie.

In the Heart of the Sea - Estimated World Wide Box office: $111,929,573

Going to be a disappointing result for Warner Brothers. Based on my formula (which incorporates the opening weekend and IMDB rating) I predict that this movie will only make $111 million. Based on the budget of 100 million, which you usually double to include marketing costs, it looks like the movie will end up as a loss of $88 million.


Not great.

Atlassian - The only way is down- Price target of $9.61 a share

Been having a look over Atlassian and whether it is worth investing in. Not a big fan to be honest.


The Return on Equity is not great, at a very lowly 3%. Yet, if it has a Beta of say 1.3 (like ServiceNow, a competitor), that would imply a cost of capital of 7.5%. I just don't see the company being able to increase the ROE to that level (especially as they lost money last year and were saved by a tax credit)


On the plus side, Leadership looks ok...fairly diverse board with plenty of IT experience.


Going deeper into the fundamentals; based on the FCFF formula, I calculate the price being around $9.61 a share, which is way lower than the $26.26 on offer at the moment, especially when it is a fairly competitive area. I don't see the growth potential.


And for those who think I am unpatriotic, well, the company is domiciled in the UK! 


Note: Not a recommendation to invest or not invest in Atlassian. If pain persists, see your financial advisor.

Sydney House Prices 12/12/2015: Average 3 bedroom house now sells for $1,248,805 (down 0.27%)

Weakness in the housing prices are starting to feed into auctions....finally. Stats below

House	Type		Sample	Average	Min	Max	Change
Average	2 Bedroom House		811	1,143,728.32	1,114,930.06	1,172,526.58	-0.28%
	3 Bedroom House		3100	1,248,805.42	1,231,280.90	1,266,329.95	-0.27%
	4 Bedroom House		2501	1,468,177.91	1,442,052.19	1,494,303.63	0.00%
Unit	Type			Average	Min	Max
	2 Bedroom Unit		2083	835,199.10	822,039.09	848,359.11	-0.09%
	3 Bedroom Unit		896	1,157,761.11	1,119,503.26	1,196,018.97	0.30%

Estimates of Movie Earnings: Formula

Been looking at one of my favourite sites, www.boxofficemojo.com. Gives a bit of a snapshot into the world of movie revenues and the like.


As a big fan of movies and data, I was wondering if there was any way to predict how much a movie would make using regression techniques.


My theory is that the final world wide box office is dependent on two main criteria; firstly, the weekend opening (if it opens huge, it is more likely to have a big run) and also, how good the movie is (if it is well accepted, it is more likely to have a good run)


So I have taken the top 60 movies on boxofficemojo, based on domestic US revenue(as a sample), and ran a regression with the dependent variable being World Wide Gross, and two independent variables; the opening weekend box office, the second being the movies IMDB rating, less the average IMDB rating (which is around 6.6)


Performing the regression gives the following formula


World Wide Box office = 8.3*(Opening Weekend) + 29,200,000*(IMDB rating-6.6) - 22,000,000


All variables are statistically significant at the 95% confidence interval and the adjusted R2 is 0.91.


So there does appear to be a relationship. Interesting. Based on that, I can predict the Revenues of the Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part2 of $841,392,700 (which should make more that Mockingjay Part 1, ($755,000,000), but not as big as Catching Fire (which made $865,000,000).

Sydney House Prices 5/12/15: Average 3 bedroom house now sells for $1,252,154 (down 0.02%)

Bit of weakness now starting to flow through house prices...finally

House	Type		Sample	Average	Min	Max	Change
Average	2 Bedroom House		785	1,146,920.15	1,117,604.53	1,176,235.77	-0.20%
	3 Bedroom House		3013	1,252,154.77	1,234,310.28	1,269,999.25	-0.02%
	4 Bedroom House		2441	1,468,148.69	1,441,927.85	1,494,369.53	-0.17%
Unit	Type			Average	Min	Max
	2 Bedroom Unit		2044	835,989.84	822,630.96	849,348.72	0.17%
	3 Bedroom Unit		865	1,154,247.35	1,116,264.96	1,192,229.75	-0.09%

The Goats Sydney House Price Weighted Index: Up 0.53% in November

Based on my weighted index (more weight put on the quantity of houses and apartments sold), my Sydney based index is up 0.53% in November, which is an annual price rise of 6%.


So Sydney House and Apartment prices are still going up at a pretty healthy clip.

Sydney House Prices 28/11/15: Average 3 bedroom house now sells for $1,252,414 (up 0.01%)

Nothing doing on the House Prices. Pretty flat. Stats as per usual. Will do a new post with the monthly total

House	Type		Sample	Average	Min	Max	Change
Average	2 Bedroom House		769	1,149,235.65	1,119,712.73	1,178,758.56	0.14%
	3 Bedroom House		2924	1,252,414.78	1,234,276.16	1,270,553.39	0.01%
	4 Bedroom House		2358	1,470,701.42	1,443,949.97	1,497,452.87	0.01%
Unit	Type			Average	Min	Max
	2 Bedroom Unit		1988	834,547.93	821,010.07	848,085.80	-0.08%
	3 Bedroom Unit		844	1,155,279.57	1,116,698.08	1,193,861.06	0.38%

Sydney House Prices 23/11/2015: Average 3 bedroom house now sells for $1,252,280 (down 0.11%)

Stats as per usual

House	Type		Sample	Average	Min	Max	Change
Average	2 Bedroom House		738	1,147,608.03	1,117,262.34	1,177,953.73	0.19%
	3 Bedroom House		2840	1,252,280.39	1,233,962.27	1,270,598.51	-0.11%
	4 Bedroom House		2262	1,470,608.29	1,443,060.39	1,498,156.19	-0.01%
Unit	Type			Average	Min	Max
	2 Bedroom Unit		1930	835,186.42	821,323.99	849,048.84	0.17%
	3 Bedroom Unit		828	1,150,863.48	1,111,980.85	1,189,746.10	-0.07%

Sydney House Prices - Last 3 months - up 1.2%

Did my weighted Average growth of House Prices from 1st of August to 31st October


Stats are House Prices are up by 1.2%, a healthy 4.8% annually. So there has been a slow down in growth from the crazy ranges, but still growing.

Sydney House Prices 14/11/15: Average 3 bedroom House now sells for $1,253,721 (up 0.15%)

Increases across the board. Still no sign of a lull in the market

House	Type		Sample	Average	Min	Max	Change
Average	2 Bedroom House		711	1,145,465.35	1,115,015.47	1,175,915.22	0.29%
	3 Bedroom House		2758	1,253,721.83	1,235,058.45	1,272,385.21	0.15%
	4 Bedroom House		2194	1,470,803.99	1,442,810.38	1,498,797.60	0.05%
Unit	Type			Average	Min	Max
	2 Bedroom Unit		1873	833,747.19	819,607.98	847,886.40	0.25%
	3 Bedroom Unit		804	1,151,625.57	1,111,875.78	1,191,375.36	0.34%

Best Bond Movies by IMDB rating

Saw "Spectre" last night. Great Movie! Real throwback to the early bonds. Love a good backstory and a villain from Bond's past.


I was wondering how it would rank amongst the rest of the bonds, according to IMDB. Well so far, it's at No 6.


Movie                                              IMDB

Casino Royale	8
Goldfinger	7.8
Skyfall	7.8
From Russia with love	7.5
DrNo	7.3
Spectre	7.3
GoldenEye	7.2
The Spy Who Loved Me	7.1
Thunderball	7
You Only live twice	6.9
On Her Majesty's Secret Service	6.8
Live and Let Die	6.8
The Man with the Golden Gun	6.8
For Your Eyes Only	6.8
Diamonds Are Forever	6.7
The Living Daylights	6.7
Quantum of Solace	6.7
Octopussy	6.6
Licence to Kill	6.6
Tomorrow Never Dies	6.5
The World Is Not Enough	6.4
Moonraker	6.3
A View to a Kill	6.3
Die Another Day	6.1

I agree with most of the rankings, though I think Dr No dates pretty badly...don't think it deserves to be up there. My top 5 favourite Bond Movies would be Casino Royale, Spectre, Goldeneye, Skyfall and The Spy that loved me.
Which led me to an analysis of who is the best bond based on average IMDB rating for their movie. And it turns out Daniel Craig is the winner (no wonder the producers want him to keep playing the character)

Daniel Craig	7.45
Sean Connery	7.2
George Lazenby	6.8
Roger Moore	6.67
Pierce Brosnan	6.55
Timothy Dalton	6.53

Sydney House Prices 7/11/15: Average 3 bedroom House now sells for $1,251,833 (up 0.14%)

House Prices keep roaring up. Clearance rates are down, but I think that might just mean people Passing In rather than dropping prices. Stats as per usual.

House	Type		Sample	Average	Min	Max	Change
Average	2 Bedroom House		681	1,142,097.88	1,111,558.23	1,172,637.53	0.29%
	3 Bedroom House		2669	1,251,833.76	1,232,969.75	1,270,697.77	0.14%
	4 Bedroom House		2109	1,470,002.35	1,441,375.32	1,498,629.37	0.35%
Unit	Type			Average	Min	Max
	2 Bedroom Unit		1801	831,640.97	817,159.16	846,122.78	0.26%
	3 Bedroom Unit		777	1,147,700.08	1,106,993.50	1,188,406.65	0.86%

Sydney House Prices 30/10/15: Average 3 bedroom house now sells for $1,250,094 (up 0.27%)

 Back on the rise with the house prices. Stats as per usual.

House	Type		Sample	Average	Min	Max	Change
Average	2 Bedroom House		647	1,138,851.12	1,107,371.35	1,170,330.89	-0.24%
	3 Bedroom House		2567	1,250,094.39	1,230,752.26	1,269,436.53	0.27%
	4 Bedroom House		1999	1,464,907.63	1,435,600.58	1,494,214.68	0.11%
Unit	Type			Average	Min	Max
	2 Bedroom Unit		1737	829,459.92	814,814.71	844,105.14	0.06%
	3 Bedroom Unit		741	1,137,950.69	1,099,867.15	1,176,034.23	0.12%

Apple Watch Sales: Now estimated at $1.758 billion.

Apple watch sales have increased, according to my estimated formula (see previous post)


On the 3 year trend, Apple "Other Products" should have earned $1,289 billion in Q4 2015. However, according to the financial report, the earnings of this division was in fact $3,048 billion.


Doing the basic math, Apple Watch sales have increased in Q4 from the $1.32 billion to $1.75 billion (an increase of 32.5%)

Sydney House Prices 24/10/2015: Average 3 bedroom house now sells for $1,246,776 (down 0.13%)

Starting to see a little bit of weakness in the house market. Will see whether it flows through.

House	Type		Sample	Average	Min	Max	Change	Confidence	Change
Average	2 Bedroom House		619	1,141,635.51	1,109,262.64	1,174,008.38	-0.29%	32372.87181	-0.29%
	3 Bedroom House		2434	1,246,776.63	1,226,980.79	1,266,572.47	-0.13%	19795.84104	-0.13%
	4 Bedroom House		1903	1,463,343.59	1,433,152.30	1,493,534.88	0.21%	30191.29122	0.21%
Unit	Type			Average	Min	Max		Confidence
	2 Bedroom Unit		1660	828,929.15	813,856.37	844,001.93	-0.02%	15,072.78	-0.02%
	3 Bedroom Unit		710	1,136,578.82	1,097,708.13	1,175,449.50	0.63%	38,870.68	0.63%