Wow...the Market Risk Premium has turned negative.
Used my usual methodology...last 2.5 years of daily returns of the ASX200...have a return of -1.7% (Pretty bad)
Dividend Return of the ASX200 over that period averaged 4.36%, leading to a total market return of the ASX200 of 2.65%. That is pretty low.
When the risk free rate is hanging at an average of 3.22% (the 10 year bond rate), means we have a market risk premium of -0.52%.
Not great...but I wonder if this means the market is oversold. Generally the long term average of the Market Risk Premium is 7.4% so if there is revision to the mean, you would expect it to increase back to that level. If that happens, the ASX200 should increase as well (or the bond rate should drop)
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