Australian/NZ Netflix Subscribers. Total Members likely to be only 581,500

Lots of numbers floating about the Australian media about Netflix Subscribers in Australia and how there are over 1.4 million Netflix Subscribers over the last three months. I think this is absolute rubbish. When you think there are only around 8,000,000 households in Australia, that would mean a market penetration of 17.5%...which is a lot for a luxury item, especially when Foxtel only has around 30% of the market (being around for a while and has the advantage of sport)


So I decided to do my own analysis. Firstly I downloaded the quarterly International Streaming total members numbers published in the financial reports of Netflix since 2011. (Since Australian/NZ data would appear in that segment


I then calculated the increases in each period, found the 4 quarter moving average and seasonally adjusted the data to get the Seasonally Adjusted Data Set. Produces the data set below.

	Raw	Increase	Average	Residual	Average Residual Seasonal	SA Series
2015.1	20877	2600	2048.5	551.5	390.625	2209.375
2014.4	18277	2434	1836.75	597.25	448.6875	1985.313
2014.3	15843	2042	1663.75	378.25	149.7291667	1892.271
2014.2	13801	1118	1513.5	-395.5	-311.5	1429.5
2014.1	12683	1753	1385.25	367.75	390.625	1362.375
2013.4	10930	1742	1202.25	539.75	448.6875	1293.313
2013.3	9188	1441	1219.25	221.75	149.7291667	1291.271
2013.2	7747	605	1030.75	-425.75	-311.5	916.5
2013.1	7142	1021	1019.25	1.75	390.625	630.375
2012.4	6121	1810	1065.75	744.25	448.6875	1361.313
2012.3	4311	687	707.75	-20.75	149.7291667	537.2708
2012.2	3624	559	664.25	-105.25	-311.5	870.5
2012.1	3065	1207	565.5	641.5	390.625	816.375
2011.4	1858	378	464.5	-86.5	448.6875	-70.6875
2011.3	1480	513	493.3333	19.66667	149.7291667	363.2708
2011.2	967	164	483.5	-319.5	-311.5	475.5
2011.1	803	803	803	0

Finding the trend on that SA Series, (y = 119.86x+66.431) gives you a SA increase for 2015. Q2 of 2,104,000 subscribers





However, we need to remove the seasonal adjustment of that (by adding back the Q2 average residual),which results in a raw increase  of 1,792,551 subscribers.


As the 2015.Q1 International Subscribers (this includes paid and un payed) was reported as 20,877,000 members, that means that based on the trend there should be 22,669,550 International Subscribers of Netflix at the end of 2015.Q2


Note: As Australia/NZ Netflix only started in Q2, 2015, we can make the assumption that any difference in the trend Subscriber numbers and the raw subscriber numbers (from the Q2 report) will be from Australia and NZ (as no other international division started during that period.)


From the Q2.2015 financial report, the international members of Netflix are reported as 23,251,000 members.


So based on those figures, we have Australian/NZ Netflix subscribers to be 581,500 (23,251,000 - 22,669,550). A good number for three months, but no where near the 1.4 members being thrown about in the press.


Don't believe everything you read.