Monday, February 22, 2016

Climate Change in Australia - The heat is still on, but are we coming off the boil?

Been looking into the Satellite Records produced by Roy Spencer at the UAH specifically around the Lower Troposphere


http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0beta/tlt/uahncdc_lt_6.0beta5.txt


Been interested to see how the rates of warming have changed. I did some regressions, starting at 1979 (the first reference in the satellite record) and then tracked the trend rates for each decade, using 1979 as my starting point for each period (a way of removing any cherry picking accusations)


Wanted to see if the trend has changed, and see if it had increased or decreased.


Anyway, here are the temperature trends from the satellite records of the Lower Troposphere recorded over Australia.; The figures are all anomalies from the 30-year (1981-2010) average


1978.12 - 1988.12: 0.02223 a decade (Not Statistically significant at 95% confidence interval)
1978.12 - 1998.12: 0.20949 a decade
1978.12 - 2008.12: 0.20455 a decade
1978.12 - 2016.1: 0.14897 a decade


So as you can see, we were cooking with gas from the 1990's to 2000 (that 10 year period was crazy), but we stabilised the growth over the 2000 and now the rate (while still increasing) has started to slow.


That trend is reflected through the global stats as well


1978.12 - 1988.12: 0.12363 a decade
1978.12 - 1998.12: 0.16348 a decade
1978.12 - 2008.12: 0.12667 a decade
1978.12 - 2016.1 : 0.11472 a decade


So we will still get the headlines of "Hottest year ever" each year as the trend is still positive, but we may have reached the peak acceleration already, and for each year we get less and less of an increase.


Good news. Means that we are doing the right thing already, the planet is adapting, or the rapid temperature rise was a short term thing.

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