Economic Rigor

Been looking into some statistics around the top 30 players on the ATP tour. If you are looking at career Win Percentages, Tomic is along way off the pace (average of all in the top 30 is 61%...he is at 53%, worse than Kyrgios) And the top 3 are way above everyone else. Funny thing also is that Nadal is still leading the career win percentage...better than Djokavic. Anyway, here are the top 30 players by win percentage (and z-score). Means that the top three are 2 standard deviations better than the rest of the top 30. Impressive. Actual Rating Player Career Win Percentage z-score Age 5 Rafael Nadal 82.73% 2.19 29 1 Novak Djokovic 82.56% 2.17 28 3 Roger Federer 81.63% 2.08 34 2 Andy Murray 76.99% 1.60 28 10 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 68.28% 0.72 30 8 David Ferrer 67.87% 0.67 33 14 ...

Always amusing to hear the Microsoft Sprukers trying to say that the Surface is outselling the iPad. Not quite. iPad sales in 2015: $23 Billion Surface sale in 2015: $3.6 Billion.

So (estimated) Apple watch sales are still growing, but starting to slow dramatically. Based on my 3 year trend, Other Products (without the Watch) should have earned $2.528 Billion in Q1 2016. Instead, they earned $4.351 Billion. So that means the watch had revenues of around $1.822 in the Q1. Now this is pretty ordinary for Christmas, which you would assume would be a perfect time for some serious watch sales. But it is only a 3% increase from sales in  2015 Q4. And I think the reason is that consumers have worked out that there is no reason to have a watch, if you have your phone.

Looks like Leo hasn't quite hit the heights with "The Revenant" Based on the opening weekend of $40 million with an IMDB rating of 8.3, we have a predicted box office of $361,883,000. Based on a budget of $135 million, we are talking a profit return of around 68%. Not a mega hit (which would be a return of over 100%), but still another solid effort. It looks like it is his best chance of getting an Oscar, but in the movie index (a weighted score that incorporates profits and reviews), it is likely to be his 8th best movie. See full index below. Movie Index Titanic 9.93 Inception 8.734688 Catch Me If You Can 7.5 Django Unchained 5.85 The Wolf of Wall Street 4.38 The Departed 3.98 Shutter Island 3.745 The Revenant 2.678519 The Great Gatsby 1.405714 Blood Diamond 0.923 Romeo + Juliet 0.913793 The Aviator 0.749091 Gangs of New York 0.7...

ATO recently released a list of the top companies who are/aren't paying their taxes (for the year 2013/2014). Bit of a treasure trove of info, as it also gives you the Income of these companies. Having an interest in IT Business, I was interested in seeing the top IT Managed Services Companies in Australia. And here they are 1. IBM - Income $4,602,509,190 2. HP - Income $3,130,519,164 3. Accenture - Income $1,409,921,569 4. Dimension Data - Income $1,260,503,620 5. Fujitsu - Income $962,861,275 6. CSC - Income $850,076,520 7. Data3 - Income $833,702,585 8. UXC - Income $562,033,612 9. NEC - Income $367,117,038 10. Datacom - Income $359,147,858 11. Infosys - Income $332,308,298 12. TATA - Income $306,421,484 13. Wipro- Income $234,687,582 14. Technology One- Income $226,900,914 15. Oakton - Income $168,526,797 16. ASG Group - Income $160,072,700 With the impending Merger of CSC and UXC creating a $1.4 billion dollar business, the combined entity is likel...

That time again...Market Risk Premium time. Using the usual methodology. 2.5 years of daily returns of the ASX200. : Average = 3.9% (not great) Add the dividend yield of 4.52%, leads to a total market return of 8.42% (down 3% in 6 months...ouch!) Risk Free rate has reduced to 3.34% leading to a Market Risk Premium of 5.08%, which is a reduction of around 2%. This is the lowest Market Risk Premium since 2012. Not great.

Just adjusting my prediction for Star Wars box office. Couple of adjustments. 1. Opening weekend box office was 247,000,000. 2. IMDB back down to 8.5 New Box Office Prediction : 2,028,389,744 (which means it will stay in 3rd place all time, behind Avatar and Titanic)

According to my formula, house prices were down 0.02% in the last quarter. Pretty flat.

Low volumes for the last auction week, but showing some decrease in prices (which is nice). Stats as per usual below House Type Sample Average Min Max Change Average 2 Bedroom House 823      1,143,463.03           1,113,696.92    1,173,229.15 -0.02% 3 Bedroom House 3141      1,247,096.76           1,229,698.86    1,264,494.66 -0.14% 4 Bedroom House 2531      1,466,584.33           1,440,707.30    1,492,461.37 -0.11% Unit Type Average Min Max 2 Bedroom Unit 2109          834,925.45           ...