Bernard Tomic has some work to do to be a top 10 player on the ATP tour

Been looking into some statistics around the top 30 players on the ATP tour. If you are looking at career Win Percentages, Tomic is along way off the pace (average of all in the top 30 is 61%...he is at 53%, worse than Kyrgios) And the top 3 are way above everyone else. Funny thing also is that Nadal is still leading the career win percentage...better than Djokavic. Anyway, here are the top 30 players by win percentage (and z-score). Means that the top three are 2 standard deviations better than the rest of the top 30. Impressive.

Actual Rating	Player	Career Win Percentage	z-score	Age
5	Rafael Nadal	82.73%	2.19	29
1	Novak Djokovic	82.56%	2.17	28
3	Roger Federer	81.63%	2.08	34
2	Andy Murray	76.99%	1.60	28
10	Jo-Wilfried Tsonga	68.28%	0.72	30
8	David Ferrer	67.87%	0.67	33
14	Milos Raonic	67.20%	0.61	25
7	Kei Nishikori	66.67%	0.55	26
6	Tomas Berdych	66.11%	0.49	30
13	Marin Cilic	64.72%	0.35	27
9	Richard Gasquet	63.36%	0.21	29
25	Gael Monfils	63.32%	0.21	29
4	Stan Wawrinka	62.96%	0.17	30
11	John Isner	61.88%	0.06	30
28	Grigor Dimitrov	59.59%	-0.17	24
15	Gilles Simon	59.14%	-0.22	31
21	Roberto Bautista Agut	58.37%	-0.29	27
12	Kevin Anderson	58.22%	-0.31	29
22	Jack Sock	56.94%	-0.44	23
30	Nick Kyrgios	54.55%	-0.68	20
26	Viktor Troicki	54.14%	-0.73	29
16	David Goffin	54.02%	-0.74	25
17	Bernard Tomic	53.20%	-0.82	23
24	Ivo Karlovic	53.11%	-0.83	36
20	Dominic Thiem	52.76%	-0.87	22
19	Feliciano Lopez	52.17%	-0.93	34
23	Fabio Fognini	50.92%	-1.05	28
18	Benoit Paire	48.57%	-1.29	26
29	Andreas Seppi	48.24%	-1.33	31
27	Guillermo Garcia-Lopez	47.44%	-1.41	32

iPad vs Surface: Not even in the same parish

Always amusing to hear the Microsoft Sprukers trying to say that the Surface is outselling the iPad.


Not quite.


iPad sales in 2015: $23 Billion


Surface sale in 2015: $3.6 Billion.

Apple Watch Sales Q1 2016 : Now estimated at $1.822 billion (a 3% increase from Q4 2015)

So (estimated) Apple watch sales are still growing, but starting to slow dramatically.


Based on my 3 year trend, Other Products (without the Watch) should have earned $2.528 Billion in Q1 2016.


Instead, they earned $4.351 Billion. So that means the watch had revenues of around $1.822 in the Q1.


Now this is pretty ordinary for Christmas, which you would assume would be a perfect time for some serious watch sales. But it is only a 3% increase from sales in  2015 Q4.


And I think the reason is that consumers have worked out that there is no reason to have a watch, if you have your phone.

The Revenant: World Wide Box Office prediction $361,883,000.

Looks like Leo hasn't quite hit the heights with "The Revenant"


Based on the opening weekend of $40 million with an IMDB rating of 8.3, we have a predicted box office of $361,883,000. Based on a budget of $135 million, we are talking a profit return of around 68%. Not a mega hit (which would be a return of over 100%), but still another solid effort.


It looks like it is his best chance of getting an Oscar, but in the movie index (a weighted score that incorporates profits and reviews), it is likely to be his 8th best movie. See full index below.

Movie	Index
Titanic	9.93
Inception	8.734688
Catch Me If You Can	7.5
Django Unchained	5.85
The Wolf of Wall Street	4.38
The Departed	3.98
Shutter Island	3.745
The Revenant	2.678519
The Great Gatsby	1.405714
Blood Diamond	0.923
Romeo + Juliet	0.913793
The Aviator	0.749091
Gangs of New York	0.744
Revolutionary Road	0.685714
Body of Lies	0.257143
Total Eclipse	0.189851
Marvin's Room	0
J. Edgar	-0.14
The Beach	-0.188
The Basketball Diaries	-0.255
Celebrity	-0.4
Don's Plum	-0.9
The Man in the Iron Mask	-1.26771

IT Managed Service Companies in Australia (By Revenue)

ATO recently released a list of the top companies who are/aren't paying their taxes (for the year 2013/2014). Bit of a treasure trove of info, as it also gives you the Income of these companies. Having an interest in IT Business, I was interested in seeing the top IT Managed Services Companies in Australia. And here they are


1. IBM - Income $4,602,509,190
2. HP - Income $3,130,519,164
3. Accenture - Income $1,409,921,569
4. Dimension Data - Income $1,260,503,620
5. Fujitsu - Income $962,861,275
6. CSC - Income $850,076,520
7. Data3 - Income $833,702,585
8. UXC - Income $562,033,612
9. NEC - Income $367,117,038
10. Datacom - Income $359,147,858
11. Infosys - Income $332,308,298
12. TATA - Income $306,421,484
13. Wipro- Income $234,687,582
14. Technology One- Income $226,900,914
15. Oakton - Income $168,526,797
16. ASG Group - Income $160,072,700


With the impending Merger of CSC and UXC creating a $1.4 billion dollar business, the combined entity is likely to come in at 3rd or 4th meaning Fujitsu will drop out of the top 5. Not great for the Japanese.

Market Risk Premium of ASX200 in Dec 2015: 5.08%

That time again...Market Risk Premium time.


Using the usual methodology. 2.5 years of daily returns of the ASX200. : Average = 3.9% (not great)
Add the dividend yield of 4.52%, leads to a total market return of 8.42% (down 3% in 6 months...ouch!)


Risk Free rate has reduced to 3.34% leading to a Market Risk Premium of 5.08%, which is a reduction of around 2%.


This is the lowest Market Risk Premium since 2012. Not great.

Star Wars: The Force awakes - Adjustment

Just adjusting my prediction for Star Wars box office.


Couple of adjustments.
1. Opening weekend box office was 247,000,000.
2. IMDB back down to 8.5


New Box Office Prediction : 2,028,389,744 (which means it will stay in 3rd place all time, behind Avatar and Titanic)

Weighted Average House Price Index - Dec Quarter: Down 0.02%

According to my formula, house prices were down 0.02% in the last quarter. Pretty flat.

Sydney House Prices 19/12/2015: Average 3 bedroom house now sells for $1,247,096 (down 0.14%)

Low volumes for the last auction week, but showing some decrease in prices (which is nice). Stats as per usual below

House	Type		Sample	Average	Min	Max	Change
Average	2 Bedroom House		823	1,143,463.03	1,113,696.92	1,173,229.15	-0.02%
	3 Bedroom House		3141	1,247,096.76	1,229,698.86	1,264,494.66	-0.14%
	4 Bedroom House		2531	1,466,584.33	1,440,707.30	1,492,461.37	-0.11%
Unit	Type			Average	Min	Max
	2 Bedroom Unit		2109	834,925.45	821,903.17	847,947.73	-0.03%
	3 Bedroom Unit		911	1,154,365.49	1,116,625.16	1,192,105.82	-0.29%