Size of the Unpaid Child Care Industry in Australia - NOT $345 Billion a year

PWC published a report today saying that they believe the unpaid Child Care Industry was worth $345 Billion a year. Which is a crazy figure. Would make unpaid child care the biggest industry in Australia.


So I called Bullshit and decided to do some analysis. My goal was to calculate what it would cost to put every child (0-5) in long day care, and every child (6-12) in before school and after school care.


First, my assumptions.


1. There are 256 working days in the year. Weekends and Public Holidays would not require child care as it is expected that parents would do the caring.
2. Long Day care costs $100 per child, per day (is a NSW price so likely to be cheaper in other states)
3. Before School/After School care costs $66 a day (is a NSW price so likely to be cheaper in other states
4. Number of children in Australia are accurately counted by the ABS (which is where I am getting my numbers)


Calculations


In Australia, no of kids aged 0-5 = 1,871,741
Cost of day care = $100 a day
Number of working days in year = 256.
Total cost of childcare = $47,916,569,600


In Australia, no of kids aged 6-12 = 2,102,749
Cost of before after school = $66 a day
Number of working days in year = 256
Total cost of before/after school care = $35,528,047,100


Total childcare bill = $83.4 billion. And that includes unpaid and paid childcare!

With the paid childcare industry being around $10 billion a year, means unpaid childcare would be $73.4 billion.


So not quite $345 Billion a year is it. PWC having a shocker. First the Oscars, now this!

Immigration in US - Source of crime?

Been doing some digging around for incarceration statistics to see if Immigrants are as big a source of crime as Trump specifies.


Not sure whether it is as big an issue as he claims.


I started my analysis with the Bureau of Justice Statistics, which publishes an annual report of jail stats. Includes a table of non-citizen prisoners.


In 2015 - the stats were as follows...


Non-Citizen prisoners by Federal and State Jurisdictions = 65,107
Total Number of Prisoners in Federal and State Jurisdictions = 1,526,792


So pretty small percentage, right? Well not so fast.


That number does not include Californian numbers, which don't publish non citizen prisoner stats.


Going back to 2011, when California did publish these stats, we worked out that California had around 10.9% of its prisoner population to be non-citizen.


Extrapolating that to 2015 (10.9% of 2015 California prisoner population of  129,593), means we have an estimated California non-citizen jail population of 14,128.


So total Non-citizen prisoner population = 79,235


That means citizen prisoner population = 1,447,557


If we convert them to by 10,000 pop stats based on populations of non-citizen (22,984,000) and citizen (295,884,100), as of 2015, we get the following rates of imprisonment


Non-Citizen  = 34.48 per 10,000 people
Citizen = 48.93 per 10,000 people


So Citizens, which to be fair does include the large African American prisoner population, are more likely to be imprisoned than immigrants.


But its like when a guest breaks something in your house, vs a family member. You are more likely to forgive the family member.

Apple Watch Sales Q4 2016: $1.4 billion

Apple results out again, meaning time to estimate Apple Watch Sales!


Based on my formula, it looks like Apple Watch Sales are up again, but only to $1.4 billion for the quarter.


That is an increase of 15% from the last quarter, but down 20% on Q4 2015.


Still unconvinced by the Apple Watch myself

Apple Watch Sales Q3 2016 estimate: $1.2 Billion

Using my formula, there has been  a 40% increase in Apple Watch sales in the 3rd Quarter. Well done.

Market Risk Premium of ASX200 in June 2016: 0.4578%

That time again to test the market risk premium of the ASX200.


As mentioned last time, I assumed that as the market risk premium had turned negative in March, either the Bond rate had to drop, or returns had to improve. In fact both occurred. (Go me!)


Average 10 year Bond rate, due to the RBA dropping rates again, has reduced further to 3.04% from 3.22%


The ASX200 average return has improved slightly to -0.91%


Dividend yield has improved slightly as well to 4.407%. Meaning the market return has increased to 3.5% compared to 2.6% previously.


So that means the Market risk premium has turned positive once again to 0.5% Way off the long term average, so still think there is some life left in the ASX rally.

Sydney House Prices 25/6/16: Average 3 bedroom House now sells for $1,266,427 (down 0.03%)

House	Type	Sample	Median	Average	Min	Max	Change
Average	2brh	1236	1,141,750.00	1,158,479.96	1,134,800.89	1,182,159.03	0.11%
	3brh	4476	1,220,000.00	1,266,427.24	1,251,481.01	1,281,373.48	-0.03%
	4brh	3576	1,380,500.00	1,506,837.34	1,483,784.36	1,529,890.32	0.00%
Unit	Type			Average	Min	Max
	2 Bedroom Unit	3014	800,000.00	854,104.56	843,139.72	865,069.39	0.22%
	3 Bedroom Unit	1257	1,050,000.00	1,200,278.81	1,165,788.01	1,234,769.60	0.24%

Sydney House Prices 18/06/2016: Average 3 bedroom house now sells for $1,266,844 (up 0.01%)

House	Type	Sample	Median	Average	Min	Max	Change
Average	2brh	1220	1,141,750.00	1,157,202.92	1,133,310.53	1,181,095.31	0.31%
	3brh	4399	1,220,000.00	1,266,844.59	1,251,735.68	1,281,953.49	0.01%
	4brh	3501	1,385,000.00	1,506,838.71	1,483,589.25	1,530,088.17	0.11%
Unit	Type			Average	Min	Max
	2 Bedroom Unit	2956	800,000.00	852,260.02	841,196.86	863,323.19	0.02%
	3 Bedroom Unit	1235	1,050,000.00	1,197,369.20	1,162,682.04	1,232,056.35	0.04%