Monday, May 20, 2013

Yahoo does it again...overpays for "Cool"

It seems that Marissa Mayer has again decided to waste investors funds

1.1 billion for Tumblr??? To pay that amount of money for a company that earned a grand total of $13 million in REVENUE last year (That's not EBITDA, but REVENUE) is a bit much.

Lets look at the figures. Based on that revenue figure, and assuming a EBITDA ratio the same as LinkedIN of 14% (a generous assumption to say the least) that would be EDITDA of $1.8 million

So a valuation of 1.1 Billion would be an EBITDA multiple of 604! Consider LinkedIN again, which is trading at EDITBA multiple of 140 of current EBITDA (which a lot of people also say is overvalued)

If we use that muliple and add a 50% growth premium on the EBITDA multiple for a new company (another generous assumption), lets see what Tumblr should be valued at if the multiple was 210. Based on that, the valuation of Tumblr should be $382 million...a more reasonable figure for a growth company.

But maybe I'm wrong. Maybe Marissa sees something that alludes me. But I can't see Yahoo getting a lot of return on this investment.

Note: Not a recommendation to invest/not invest with Yahoo. See Financial advisor etc.

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