50/50

A lot of attention has been paid to the recent Newspoll which puts the Gillard Government at "Even Stephens" with the Coalition based on 2 Party Preferred vote...50% each. And while it is true that this poll is a bit of a fillip for Labor, the Goat wonders if this is really an accurate measure of the state of play regarding Gillards support.

One thing that should always be considered when looking at Polls is the threat of outliers. To combat that I will use a 4 poll average to try and smooth away any potential one off bumps in the polls. Using the last 4 News poll results, we find that the 2PP vote is actually 47.75 % to Labor and 52.25% to the Libs/Nationals. Not looking so good now for the Government.

But maybe that is just the News Poll. My favourite forecaster, J Scott Armstrong, recommends using a combination of predictions and then weighting them equally to gain the most accurate forecast. To do this, I have taken the last 4 poll averages for the two other fortnightly pollers (Essential and Roy Morgan). The 4 poll average from Essential puts the 2PP at 53.25/47.75 in favour of the Coalition, Roy Morgan puts it at 51/49 the same way.

Weighting the three polls equally (1/3 each), the 2PP is now looking at 52.2% to the Coalition, 47.8% to Labor.

Labor is definitely improving, but not quite even yet. Will keep you informed of any changes in the Gillard Goatameter as we get closer to election day.