Reserve Bank Prediction - Hold at 3.5%

The Goatameter is reporting some upturn in the economic conditions over the last month. Therefore there will be less incentive for the Reserve to do anything to rates today. Though who knows with this board. I was wrong last month. I predicted a cut, but the board adopted a wait and see approach.
Which goes back to the basic conservativism of the board. If you look back to all the decisions made by the board since 1990, if you predicted "No change" for every monthly board meeting, you would have been right the majority of the time. Out of 264 board meetings, there has only been a change to rates 60 times. So if you predicted "No change" you would have been right around 77% of the time (though only running at 60% since March). That's equal to my Goatameter's run so far (which is also 60% since March, but a lot more time consuming to calculate)
The wonders of forecasting. As my favourite forecaster implies (J Scott Armstrong if you must know), you can have the most complicated model in the world, but sometimes, the simple methods work the best.