After Australia's pretty ordinary performance at the London Olympic Games, I have been trying to analyse just how bad we went.
I have created myself a forecasting model to try and predict how many medals we should have got, based on the Team Size, the fact that we are not China, the US or Russia and how many medals we won in the previous games (in Beijing). Based on this formula, the Total Medal Tally should have been:-
1. US 103 Medals
2. China 91 Medals
3. Russia 82 Medals
4. GB 47 Medals
5. Australia 40 Medals
6. Germany 37 Medals
7. France 34 Medals
8. Japan 24 Medals
9. Italy 24 Medals
10. South Korea 24 Medals
This is pretty close to the actual medal tally (in brakets difference from predicted)
1. US 104 Medals (+1)
2. China 87 Medals (-4)
3. Russia 82 Medals (0)
4. GB 65 Medals (+18)
5. Germany 44 Medals (+7)
6. Japan 38 Medals (+14)
7. Australia 35 Medals (-5)
8. France 34 Medals (0)
9. Italy 28 Medals (+4)
10. South Korea 28 Medals (+4)
So all up, a bit disappointing for Australia with 5 less medals than predicted based on our team size and previous performance.Team GB outperformed as did Germany and Japan and they zoomed right past.
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