Economic Rigor

 We have the following in trouble and who need to win convincing in their final games to have a chance to get through. Belgium - (2nd Ranked Team) - 39% chance of going through Argentina (3rd Ranked Team) - 44% chance of going through Denmark (10th Ranked Team) - 28% chance of getting through to the next round. Is playing Australia though Germany (11th Ranked Team) - 22% chance of getting through Mexico (13th Ranked Team) - 22% chance of getting through USA (16th Ranked Team) - 33% chance of getting through Senegal (18th Ranked Team) - 39% chance of getting through Wales (19th Ranked Team) - 15% chance of getting through

 Doing my standard calculations of the Groups of Death. Based on my methodology of finding the variance of the top 3 in each group added to the variance of the 2nd and 3rd ranked teams we have the following in order of deadliest to safest Group B (England, USA, Wales, Iran) Group E (Spain, Germany, Japan, Costa Rica) Group G (Brazil, Switzerland, Serbia, Cameroon) Group F (Belgium, Croatia, Morocco, Canada) Group H (Portugal, Uruguay, South Korea, Ghana) Group C (Argentina, Mexico, Poland, Saudi Arabia) Group D (France, Denmark, Tunisia, Australia) Group A (Netherlands, Senegal, Ecuador, Qatar) So no real surprise that Germany was beaten by Japan (Germany is ranked 11th, Japan, 24th...but Argentina (3) losing to Saudi Arabia(51) was a real shock. But England (5) have some real danger games against Wales (19) and USA (16)