Top 20 ranked Soccer sides potentially going to be knocked out of the group stages of World Cup

 We have the following in trouble and who need to win convincing in their final games to have a chance to get through.

Belgium - (2nd Ranked Team) - 39% chance of going through

Argentina (3rd Ranked Team) - 44% chance of going through

Denmark (10th Ranked Team) - 28% chance of getting through to the next round. Is playing Australia though

Germany (11th Ranked Team) - 22% chance of getting through

Mexico (13th Ranked Team) - 22% chance of getting through

USA (16th Ranked Team) - 33% chance of getting through

Senegal (18th Ranked Team) - 39% chance of getting through

Wales (19th Ranked Team) - 15% chance of getting through

World Cup 2022: Groups of Death - England in the shit

 Doing my standard calculations of the Groups of Death. Based on my methodology of finding the variance of the top 3 in each group added to the variance of the 2nd and 3rd ranked teams we have the following in order of deadliest to safest

Group B (England, USA, Wales, Iran)

Group E (Spain, Germany, Japan, Costa Rica)

Group G (Brazil, Switzerland, Serbia, Cameroon)

Group F (Belgium, Croatia, Morocco, Canada)

Group H (Portugal, Uruguay, South Korea, Ghana)

Group C (Argentina, Mexico, Poland, Saudi Arabia)

Group D (France, Denmark, Tunisia, Australia)

Group A (Netherlands, Senegal, Ecuador, Qatar)

So no real surprise that Germany was beaten by Japan (Germany is ranked 11th, Japan, 24th...but Argentina (3) losing to Saudi Arabia(51) was a real shock.

But England (5) have some real danger games against Wales (19) and USA (16)

Albanese wants to increase the minimum wage by 5.1% What the actual fuck!

 Read with interest that Albanese wants to increase the minimum wage by 5.1% if he becomes PM. So many things wrong with this.

1. Its not up to the Prime Minister. Minimum wage decisions are decided by Fair Work Commission which is supposed to be apolitical

2. If 5.1% got up, it would be the 6th highest increase since 1980, and the highest since 2006.

3. Inflation is already starting to climb. If you add a 5.1% increase to the minimum wage, you are basically guaranteeing increased inflation.

4. The largest increases in the minimum wage correlate to recessions a few years later. The increases in 1988 (9.1% across the year), 1989 (7.6% across the year) resulted in the Recession in 1991. The increase in 2004 (7.9%) and 2006 (5.6%) resulted in the GFC in 2008.

Lets hope this never gest up. Because if it does, Albo will be steering the ship with another "Recession we had to have" arrives.

OZ Election 2020. Comparing the Treasurers - Frydenberg vs Chalmers

 Interesting times in the election. From all accounts Labor is in the box seat to win, Albos gaffs withstanding.

So just going to compare contrast the 2 contenders for Treasury.

The reigning champion, 

Josh Frydenberg

Age: 50

State: Melbourne, Victoria

Religion: Jewish

Sexuality: Hetero

University Degrees:

• BEc(Hons) (Monash University).
• LLB (Monash University).
• MPhil (University of Oxford).
• MPA (Harvard University).

Awards:

Fulbright Scholarship (to attend Yale)

Commonwealth Scholarship (to attend Oxford)

Jobs:

• Articled Clerk at Mallesons Stephen Jacques from 1996 to 1999.
• Assistant Adviser to the Attorney-General, the Hon. D Williams, AM, QC, 1999.
• Adviser to the Minister for Foreign Affairs, the Hon. A Downer, MP from 1999 to 2001.
• Senior Adviser to the Minister for Foreign Affairs, the Hon. A Downer, MP from 2002 to 2003.
• Senior Adviser to the Prime Minister, the Hon. J Howard, MP from 2003 to 2004.
• Director at Deutsche Bank AG from 2005 to 2009.
• Consultant at Deutsche Bank AG, 2010.

Time in Parliament: 12 Years

Ministerships held:

• Parliamentary Secretary to the Prime Minister from 18.9.2013 to 23.12.2014.
• Assistant Treasurer from 23.12.2014 to 21.9.2015.
• Minister for Resources, Energy and Northern Australia from 21.9.2015 to 19.7.2016.
• Minister for the Environment and Energy from 19.7.2016 to 28.8.2018.
• Treasurer from 28.8.2018.

Married: Yes

Kids:1

The Heir Apparent, 

Dr Jim Chalmers

Age: 44

State: Brisbane, QLD

Religion: Catholic

Sexuality: Hetero

University Degrees

• PhD (Australian National University).
• BCom (Griffith University).
• BA (Griffith University).

Awards:

None

Jobs:

• Research officer at the Department of Premier and Cabinet (Qld) from 1999 to 2001.
• Tutor in politics and public policy at Australian National University and the University of Canberra, 2001.
• National Research Manager for the Australian Labor Party from 2002 to 2004.
• Media Adviser to the Shadow Treasurer from 2005 to 2006.
• Deputy Chief of Staff to the Leader of the Opposition, 2006.
• Senior Adviser to the Premier (NSW) from 2006 to 2007.
• General Manager of CPR (Qld), 2007.
• Deputy Chief of Staff and Principal Adviser to the Treasurer from 2007 to 2010.
• Chief of Staff to the Deputy Prime Minister and Treasurer from 2010 to 2013.
• Executive Director of the Chifley Research Centre, 2013

Time in Parliament: 9 Years

Ministerships/Shadows held:

• Shadow Parliamentary Secretary to the Leader of the Opposition from 18.10.2013 to 13.10.2015.
• Shadow Parliamentary Secretary for Trade and Investment from 18.10.2013 to 13.10.2015.
• Shadow Assistant Minister for Trade and Investment from 13.10.2015 to 23.7.2016.
• Shadow Minister for Financial Services and Superannuation from 13.10.2015 to 23.7.2016.
• Shadow Assistant Minister for Productivity from 13.10.2015 to 23.7.2016.
• Shadow Minister for Sport from 13.10.2015 to 23.7.2016.
• Shadow Assistant Minister for Resources from 4.5.2016 to 23.7.2016.
• Shadow Minister for Finance from 23.7.2016 to 2.6.2019.
• Shadow Treasurer from 2.6.2019

Married: Yes

Kids:3

Conclusions:

I feel like we will be getting a politician instead of an operator if we go to Jim Chalmers. Josh has the qualifications to question Treasury, but Jim will be reliant on their expertise as his expertise is not economics, but politics.

I think we will be getting a downgrade. Expect the deficit to climb through the roof.

Interest rates up to 0.35%...still pretty low comparatively

 Today the Reserve Bank put Interest rates up to 0.35%. To be fair, probably overdue when Inflation in Australia is at 5.1%

But in reality, compared to other countries, our interest rates are still pretty low, because our inflation is still pretty low compared to the rest of the world. Lets look at the G20..

Australia is still a good place to park your money.

Labor's Shared Home ownership scheme...creating another Commbank?

 I read with interest about Labor's new shared Home ownership scheme it is promoting.

Basically it is saying that it will provide a portion of the Home loan for an equity stake in the home that will be redeemable on the sale of the property. It is similar to schemes in other states, like WA's Key Start program.

Have a couple of questions based on that type of scheme however.

1. By providing a portion of the mortgage, effectively the Government is providing housing finance and loans and indeed, a second mortgage over the property, similar to what commercial banks do. Will that mortgage be subject to an interest rate? One of the key criticisms of the WA keystart scheme is that the interest rate is higher than commercial lenders to encourage people off the scheme when they are able to.

2. The other issue is choice of property. Keystart in WA does not allow any property to come under the scheme. The government will actual purchase property for use for the program and only those houses are subject the Shared Ownership scheme. Will that be the case of the Commonwealth? 

3. When selling the property, the WA housing authority has first claim on the property before it can be sold on the free market. By also valuing the property and potentially buying it, there is a conflict of interest inherent in the transaction. Will that be the case under the Commonwealth Scheme?

4. The WA Government sells off its loan book to other banks, effectively getting into the Mortgage Backed Security Business. Is that also the plan for the Commonwealth Scheme?

Scary stuff. The Australian Government effectively is going into the Banking business which is no place for a Government to go. The amount of funding per year will be huge. Just in WA alone in 2015/2016, the borrowing was to the tune of $1.2 billion a year. Include NSW, QLD and VIC to the scheme and you are looking at $3 billion+ a year in loans to people who generally cant get a loan with the commercial banks. These are the conditions that resulted in the GFC.

IT Managed Service Companies (Australia) - 2019/2020

 Time to update the companies again from the ATO figures

Notes:

The continual erosion of IBM and HP revenue in Australia.

The rise of DXC into number 2 and TATA leapfrogging Fujitsu to take 6th sport.

The small scale shops of kinetic and Brennan IT improving.