Economic Rigor

 We have the following in trouble and who need to win convincing in their final games to have a chance to get through. Belgium - (2nd Ranked Team) - 39% chance of going through Argentina (3rd Ranked Team) - 44% chance of going through Denmark (10th Ranked Team) - 28% chance of getting through to the next round. Is playing Australia though Germany (11th Ranked Team) - 22% chance of getting through Mexico (13th Ranked Team) - 22% chance of getting through USA (16th Ranked Team) - 33% chance of getting through Senegal (18th Ranked Team) - 39% chance of getting through Wales (19th Ranked Team) - 15% chance of getting through

 Doing my standard calculations of the Groups of Death. Based on my methodology of finding the variance of the top 3 in each group added to the variance of the 2nd and 3rd ranked teams we have the following in order of deadliest to safest Group B (England, USA, Wales, Iran) Group E (Spain, Germany, Japan, Costa Rica) Group G (Brazil, Switzerland, Serbia, Cameroon) Group F (Belgium, Croatia, Morocco, Canada) Group H (Portugal, Uruguay, South Korea, Ghana) Group C (Argentina, Mexico, Poland, Saudi Arabia) Group D (France, Denmark, Tunisia, Australia) Group A (Netherlands, Senegal, Ecuador, Qatar) So no real surprise that Germany was beaten by Japan (Germany is ranked 11th, Japan, 24th...but Argentina (3) losing to Saudi Arabia(51) was a real shock. But England (5) have some real danger games against Wales (19) and USA (16)

 Read with interest that Albanese wants to increase the minimum wage by 5.1% if he becomes PM. So many things wrong with this. 1. Its not up to the Prime Minister. Minimum wage decisions are decided by Fair Work Commission which is supposed to be apolitical 2. If 5.1% got up, it would be the 6th highest increase since 1980, and the highest since 2006. 3. Inflation is already starting to climb. If you add a 5.1% increase to the minimum wage, you are basically guaranteeing increased inflation. 4. The largest increases in the minimum wage correlate to recessions a few years later. The increases in 1988 (9.1% across the year), 1989 (7.6% across the year) resulted in the Recession in 1991. The increase in 2004 (7.9%) and 2006 (5.6%) resulted in the GFC in 2008. Lets hope this never gest up. Because if it does, Albo will be steering the ship with another "Recession we had to have" arrives.

 Interesting times in the election. From all accounts Labor is in the box seat to win, Albos gaffs withstanding. So just going to compare contrast the 2 contenders for Treasury. The reigning champion,  Josh Frydenberg Age : 50 State : Melbourne, Victoria Religion : Jewish Sexuality : Hetero University Degrees: BEc(Hons) (Monash University). LLB (Monash University). MPhil (University of Oxford). MPA (Harvard University). Awards: Fulbright Scholarship (to attend Yale) Commonwealth Scholarship (to attend Oxford) Jobs: Articled Clerk at Mallesons Stephen Jacques from 1996 to 1999. Assistant Adviser to the Attorney-General, the Hon. D Williams, AM, QC, 1999. Adviser to the Minister for Foreign Affairs, the Hon. A Downer, MP from 1999 to 2001. Senior Adviser to the Minister for Foreign Affairs, the Hon. A Downer, MP from 2002 to 2003. Senior Adviser to the Prime Minister, the Hon. J Howard, MP from 2003 to 2004. Director at Deutsche Bank AG from 2005 to 2009. Consultant at Deutsche ...

 Today the Reserve Bank put Interest rates up to 0.35%. To be fair, probably overdue when Inflation in Australia is at 5.1% But in reality, compared to other countries, our interest rates are still pretty low, because our inflation is still pretty low compared to the rest of the world. Lets look at the G20.. Australia is still a good place to park your money.

 I read with interest about Labor's new shared Home ownership scheme it is promoting. Basically it is saying that it will provide a portion of the Home loan for an equity stake in the home that will be redeemable on the sale of the property. It is similar to schemes in other states, like WA's Key Start program. Have a couple of questions based on that type of scheme however. 1. By providing a portion of the mortgage, effectively the Government is providing housing finance and loans and indeed, a second mortgage over the property, similar to what commercial banks do. Will that mortgage be subject to an interest rate? One of the key criticisms of the WA keystart scheme is that the interest rate is higher than commercial lenders to encourage people off the scheme when they are able to. 2. The other issue is choice of property. Keystart in WA does not allow any property to come under the scheme. The government will actual purchase property for use for the program and only those hou...

 Time to update the companies again from the ATO figures Notes: The continual erosion of IBM and HP revenue in Australia. The rise of DXC into number 2 and TATA leapfrogging Fujitsu to take 6th sport. The small scale shops of kinetic and Brennan IT improving.