Monday, May 20, 2019

Australian Federal Election - Morrison wins!

Well there you go. I sort of picked the fact that the polls could have been deceptive. Should have put some money on it! :-)

Anyway, lets see how we did.

Averaging the last set of 9 polls, we get the following primary votes

Coalition : 38.05
Labor : 35.38
Greens : 9.81
ON : 4.65
UAP : 4.41
Others : 7.70

Now the election result looks like the following

Coalition : 41.38 (3.33% difference from poll)
Labor : 33.88 (1.5% difference)
Greens : 10.05 (0.24% difference)
ON : 2.99 (1.66% difference)
UAP : 3.36 (1.05% difference)
Others : 8.34 (0.64% difference)

So all up, not too bad. With the exception of the primary votes for Co-alition, the other results are within 1.66%

But missing the Coalition vote by 3% is huge and really was the difference in the 2PP result

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