Economic Rigor

No joy on the surplus for Wayne Swan, who has finally woken from his self imposed economic data coma and discovered that you can't polish a turd. But the adage rings true. You elect the Liberals to save and Labor to spend!

Interesting stats from an environmental survey from the abs.gov.au released yesterday. Here are % concerned based on weekly income Generally you would expect that as income rises, people would care more about the environment (either through knowledge or Maslow's pyramid of needs). And generally the results of the survey reflect this. But not for climate change where the rich care the second least (only the second percentile of income has a worse result). Interesting.

Sorry, back to cricket again, but had to respond to this statement by Phil Hughes "Top-order batsmen - all batsmen - get caught behind, in the cordon or by the keeper,'' he said Yes, but not all the time Phil. Lets go to the stats shall we. Phil Hughes has had 32 innings (31 dismissals and 1 not out) and of those, 26 times he has been caught. That is a grand total of 84% of dismissals. Compare that the Adam Gilchrist (61% from a high risk player), Michael Clarke (55%) and Ricky Ponting (55%) Phil Hughes has a problem with his technique. I wouldn't bet on him scoring too many runs.

To celebrate Australia's continuance in a fairly ineffective treaty, I am listing our fellow travellers in the Kyoto Protocol (and their share of global carbon emissions...emissions data is from 2009 but it hasn't changed that much) 1. Germany (2.5%) 2. UK (1.7%) 3. Australia (1.4%) 4. Italy (1.3%) 5. France (1.3%) 6. Spain (1.1%) 7. Poland (0.9%) 8. Ukraine (0.8%) 9. Netherlands (0.8%) 10. Kazakhstan (0.6%) 11.Belgium (0.5%) 12. Greece (0.3%) 13. Czech Republic (0.3%) 14. Romania (0.3%) 15. Austria (0.2%) 16. Belarus (0.2%) 17. Portugal (0.2%) 18. Finland (0.2%) 19. Sweden (0.2%) 20. Hungary (0.2%) 21. Denmark (0.2%) 22. Switzerland (0.2%) 23. Bulgaria (0.2%) 24. Ireland (0.1%) 25. Norway (0.1%) 26. Slovakia (0.1%) 27.Croatia (0.1%) 28. Estonia (0.1%) 29. Slovenia (0.1%) 30. Lithuania (0.1%) 31. Luxembourg (Negligible) 32. Cyprus (Negligible) 33. Latvia (Negligible) 34. Iceland (Negligible) 35. Malta (Negligible) 36. Monaco (Negligible) 37...

So after all the crap over the last month, we have the Coalition extending their lead over the 4 poll averages. Seems like the public didn't like the allagations against Gillard. At the very least, her actions were unethical, and not quite up to the conduct most expect from the PM. Just because you haven't broken the law, doesn't mean you haven't done anything wrong.

Lots of talk around Australia's lack of Gross National Income over the last quarter. Let's not get too excited. Not a trend at this stage.  Here is the Real Gross National Income change from the 80's to now (data from the abs as always) So while we have dropped a little below 0, we are not at GFC/Banana Republic or Dotcom bomb levels just yet.

In honour of the the crazy predictions of 5 degree increases in global temperature averages coming out of the Doha climate change conference, I present the following graph showing the current state of play regarding climate change and changes in global average temperature since 1910 (the mean temperature during the period 1880-1909 being classified as the "pre-industrial average"). Figures are from NASA GISS. To get to 5 degrees higher by 2100, some crazy stuff has got to happen as in 101 years of throwing CO2 in the air, we have only increased the global average by 0.79 degrees.

I think this one is a no brainer for the Reserve. Reasons :- No wage inflation at the moment and a decrease in home approvals. Flat retail sales, a reserve bank board loaded with retail guys who need a big christmas and the GDP figures out tomorow (who wants to be proved wrong?). Taxation returns down 16% for the quarter, and a 13 billion blowout in the Net Government operating balance means there won't be a lot coming from the fiscal side of things. Add in increase in the current account deficit (due to everyone attracted to our AAA rated high interest earning Government bonds) and a high dollar, and it's looking like the Reserve will hit the "Oh Shit!" button sooner rather than later.